France Faces Political Stalemate as Far-Right National Rally Sought Historic Victory

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
06/07/2024 20h59

In one of the most significant elections in recent years, France finds itself on the cusp of a political stalemate as the far-right National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella aims for a historic victory. With the first round of the parliamentary elections completed, rival candidates withdrew from the race to improve the chances of defeating the far-right party.

Voting began at 08:00 in mainland France, and the first exit polls are expected to be released after 12 hours. The outcome of the elections is uncertain, but it is clear that President Emmanuel Macron will face challenges regardless of the result. Macron had called for the snap vote in response to the RN's victory in the European elections, a move seen by some as a compromise to the far-right challenge.

The election has added a level of tension to the country already preparing for the Paris Olympics, which are set to start on July 26. With security already tightened, 30,000 police officers have been deployed to prevent any potential violence in Paris and other French cities. A protest planned outside the National Assembly has been banned due to the heightened political atmosphere.

In Dreux, a historic town on the road to Normandy, the election falls on the day the Olympic flame passes through. This event has been eagerly anticipated by the residents, overshadowing the importance of the election for some. However, some residents feel that Macron should have delayed the election until after the Olympics to prevent any potential disruption.

Not only does the outcome of the election have political implications, but it also raises concerns about the running of the Paris 2024 Olympics. Commentators believe that Macron's decision to call for early elections has compromised the country's credit and image, potentially affecting the success of the upcoming Olympics.

The Dreux constituency is one of the closely watched races in the second round of the elections. While candidates like Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have already secured their seats, 500 other contests are being decided in run-offs, mostly involving two or three candidates. Withdrawals by rival candidates have significantly altered the balance of the election, with 217 withdrawals across France, including candidates from the Popular Front and Macron's Ensemble alliance.

Projections suggest that the RN could potentially secure an outright majority of 205 to 210 seats, but achieving the desired 289 seats appears out of reach. Parties from the radical left, Communists, Greens, Macron centrists, and conservatives are attempting to block an RN victory, citing the need to defend the Fifth Republic from far-right policies.

Although opinion polls are not entirely reliable, the local nature of each contest adds further complexity as voters do not always follow the recommendations of political parties. If the RN fails to secure a majority, it may seek alliances to form a minority government. However, analysts believe this scenario would face a vote of no confidence and would be short-lived due to constitutional limitations.

Another potential scenario being discussed is the formation of a "grand coalition" involving most parties, excluding the radical France Unbowed party, which is rejected as extremists by the Macron alliance and conservatives. The idea of a technocrat government, similar to those seen in Italy during the eurozone debt crisis, is also being floated, which could include politicians with expertise in specific fields.

As France enters uncharted territory, President Macron remains steadfast in his commitment to continue serving his remaining three years in office, dismissing any notion of resignation. The elections will undoubtedly shape the political landscape of France and have far-reaching implications for the future of the country.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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