The survey, conducted in the first week of May, reveals Cuomo defeating his closest rival, Zohran Mamdani, by a significant 24-point margin during the critical fifth round of ranked-choice voting. This places him comfortably above the 50 percent threshold needed to secure the nomination.

The Marist College survey results, unveiled on Tuesday, show Cuomo capturing 44 percent of votes in the first round, with Mamdani lagging behind at 22 percent, and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams at 11 percent. Notably, City Comptroller Brad Lander, initially in fourth place with 10 percent, ended up in third before ultimately being disqualified. Other candidates, including former Comptroller Scott Stringer and state Senators Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos, remained in single digits.

The poll indicates that Cuomo would win with 53 percent of the vote to Mamdani's 29 percent and Lander's 18 percent by the end of the ranked-choice process. Despite setbacks—including resigning in 2021 after allegations of sexual harassment—Cuomo's lead has remained relatively consistent.

Cuomo's campaign, however, has not been without its challenges. He missed out on public matching funds and has faced allegations of coordinating with a supportive super PAC. Moreover, he has maintained a cautious relationship with the press, likely to safeguard his polling advantage.

The survey further highlights that Cuomo is not the preferred second or third choice for many voters, a critical aspect of New York’s ranked-choice voting system. This system enables voters to rank up to five candidates, redistributing votes from lower-ranked candidates as they are eliminated. In a prior mayoral election, this process allowed for significant shifts in support, as seen when Mayor Eric Adams emerged victorious in an eighth-round count.

Adams, foregoing this year's primary to run as an independent in the general election, had earlier been trailing behind Cuomo, especially among key groups. The Marist poll shows that Cuomo commands 50 percent support among Black voters, 41 percent from Latino voters, and 25 percent from white voters. This demographic support may prove pivotal as his opponents attempt to erode his substantial lead ahead of the June 24 primary.

The Marist College poll, with a margin of error of 2.6 percent, sampled 3,383 likely Democratic voters, coming at a critical time as campaigns increase their ad presence and voter engagement ahead of the primary.