### MAGA Loyalists Threaten Sen. Cornyn’s Reelection Prospects in Texas GOP Primary

Senator John Cornyn’s bid for reelection appears to be in jeopardy as MAGA loyalists widen the gap in the Texas Republican primary. A poll conducted in early May by the American Opportunity Alliance, a conservative group linked to megadonor Paul Singer, reveals Cornyn trailing by 17 points in a head-to-head race against state Attorney General Ken Paxton. The survey places Paxton ahead with 52 percent against Cornyn’s 35 percent.

The poll underscores a split among Republican primary voters, categorized into "Trump Movement" voters and "Traditional Republicans." Trump Movement voters, accounting for 58 percent of the electorate, show a strong preference for Paxton, giving him a 45-point lead. In contrast, among the 35 percent identified as Traditional Republicans, Cornyn leads by 27 points. This division highlights the growing influence of the insurgent right-wing faction within the Texas GOP, which has been side-lining more traditional party members in recent years.

Paxton, currently facing federal investigation and impeachment, enjoys significant support from right-wing conservatives, whereas Cornyn, a Senate member since 2002, is seen as a staple of the GOP establishment. When tested in a hypothetical three-way race, which includes GOP Representative Wesley Hunt, Paxton still leads with 43 percent, followed by Cornyn at 27 percent and Hunt at 14 percent.

Even though Cornyn is lagging behind Paxton, it is not all bad news for the incumbent. The poll indicates that Cornyn maintains a generally favorable view among Republican primary voters in Texas, although Paxton is viewed more positively.

The poll, surveying 800 Republican primary voters from April 29 to May 1, mirrors other findings that also show Cornyn significantly trailing Paxton. These results have raised alarms among national Republican strategists, concerned about a costly and contentious primary that could elevate a scandal-laden candidate who might struggle in a general election.

The engagement of the American Opportunity Alliance in this race is significant. The organization, with members like Paul Singer and Chuck Schwab, stands as one of the major financial influences in Republican politics. Their interest in this primary emphasizes the high stakes involved in the contest for Cornyn’s Senate seat.