In the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, the conflict has reached a stalemate, with Ukrainian officials admitting that the anticipated counteroffensive is unlikely to bring a breakthrough. This puts Kyiv on what could be its toughest path yet in the war, as it battles to convince a skeptical West to continue arming Ukrainian troops and push forward against entrenched Russian forces.

After nearly two years of fighting, Ukraine is confronting enormous challenges while Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategy of holding as much territory as possible and waiting for Western allies to crack appears to be working. Despite heavy losses suffered by Russia in its attempts to seize the rest of the northeastern Luhansk region, the town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region remains mired in a bloody strategic stalemate.

Russia is applying continuous pressure on Ukraine in an effort to exhaust its resources, with the goal of locking Ukraine into a long-lasting conflict. Putin has already increased the size of the Russian army by 170,000 troops to approximately 2.2 million and signed into law a measure to boost the military budget by 25 percent over the next three years.

However, experts caution against giving Russia too much credit, stating that although it has resisted previous failures, it has not achieved any significant strategic results so far. Russia is now expected to resort to more subtle strategies and tactics, such as weakening Western support.

The next few months are unlikely to produce surprising results, but Ukraine has the potential to hold its defensive positions, acquire new weapons, and plan for another counteroffensive in the spring. This would largely depend on receiving a new tranche of U.S. support, which is currently being discussed in Senate border talks.

To prepare for the next operation, Ukraine must reassess its strategy and figure out vulnerabilities in the Russian lines that can be exploited. Long-range artillery and demining equipment are crucial for Ukraine, but analysts note the difficulty of penetrating the thick lines of an army as large as Russia's.

The previous summer counteroffensive had raised hopes of a major breakthrough, but it failed to materialize. Russia has actually gained more ground this year than Ukraine, although both sides are trading small tracts of land across the front. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the desired results were not achieved in the counteroffensive, attributing it to a lack of necessary weapons and complicated war tactics.

In an effort to bolster Ukraine's weaponry, Ukrainian pilots are now training on F-16s, a long-sought fighter jet that could be ready for a spring offensive. The signing of a cooperation agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. for the co-production of critical weapons and data exchange is also seen as a major win for Kyiv.

While the Biden administration maintains public confidence in Ukraine's ability to resist Russia, it has raised the possibility of a negotiated end to the war. The U.S. is also seeking additional emergency aid of $61 billion to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

Overall, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia remains at a stalemate, with Ukraine facing significant challenges in its efforts to push back against Russian forces. As both sides continue their maneuvers, the outcome of the war still hangs in the balance.