### Unmet Threats and Rising Tensions: A Complex Outlook on Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The intensification of assaults against Ukraine in the wake of a drone attack on Russia's bomber fleet has not materialized as vastly as expected, despite notable bombardments on Kharkiv and Kyiv over the past two days. According to US officials speaking to Reuters, a significant retaliatory strike by Moscow is anticipated to be multi-faceted and severe. A senior western diplomat projected a "huge, vicious and unrelenting" assault from Russia soon.

However, Michael Kofman, an expert on Russian affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that while Russia may target Ukraine’s SBU domestic security agency—presumably behind the drone attacks—with intermediate-range ballistic missiles and by striking defense manufacturing sites, Moscow's capacity for escalation is limited. Kofman argued that Russia has already deployed much of its military strength in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. "Russia's ability to substantially escalate strikes from what they are already doing - and attempting to do over the past month - is quite constrained," he noted.

The Ukrainian operation, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, reportedly inflicted damage on around 10% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet. A German military assessment indicated that the attack hit TU-95 and TU-22 strategic bombers as well as A-50 surveillance planes. Major General Christian Freuding shared on a YouTube podcast that over a dozen aircraft were damaged during the assault, impacting even those aircraft that were being prepared for strikes on Ukraine. The loss of A-50 surveillance planes is particularly significant, given that only a few are in service.

Freuding did not foresee an immediate reduction in Russian strikes against Ukraine despite these losses. He mentioned that while Russia maintained 90% of its strategic bombers capable of launching a variety of missiles, the psychological impact on Russian forces could be profound. Moreover, the remaining aircraft would need to carry out more sorties, hastening their wear and tear.

Additionally, the drone attack has forced Russia to reconsider its security measures for military assets, as the country previously felt secure within its vast territory. This assumption of safety has been dramatically upended, necessitating heightened security for Russia's bomber fleet.

On a separate yet related note, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have surged over an alleged delay in a large-scale prisoner exchange, initially agreed upon last week. Kyiv has refuted Russian claims that Ukraine postponed the exchanges indefinitely, while Russia accused Ukraine of manipulating the situation. Both sides have committed to releasing over 1,000 prisoners, and Russia agreed to return the remains of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have provided Ukraine with a list of 640 names but stated that Kyiv had not set a date for the exchange or transfer of Russian prisoners. Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War pointed to discrepancies in the Russian-provided list and stated that no specific date for returning the bodies had been settled. Andriy Kovalenko from Ukraine's national security and defense council asserted that Russian statements were not reflecting the actual scenario accurately.