As the conflict in Ukraine marks its third year, the war's outcome hinges not only on the battlefield but also on Western support. Ukrainian forces facing challenges with ammunition shortages are heavily reliant on Western military aid, financial assistance, and political backing to repel Russia's invasion.

Key factors influencing Western support for Ukraine include a $60 billion aid bill stuck in the U.S. Congress, which includes substantial military assistance crucial for Kyiv's defense. The bill, passed by the U.S. Senate on February 13, faces resistance from Republicans in the House of Representatives, delaying its passage.

Experts warn of Russia's artillery superiority, with Moscow ramping up production and importing rounds from North Korea and Iran. Western partners' ability to match Russian artillery production and supply Ukraine with necessary weapons will be pivotal this year.

Despite Ukrainian leaders advocating for advanced weaponry like longer-range missiles, such as the U.S. ATACMS and Germany's Taurus, challenges remain in securing approval and delivery due to political concerns.

Moreover, distractions such as the war in Gaza have diverted attention and energy from the conflict in Ukraine, impacting political support and momentum for initiatives like a peace summit. Calls for NATO membership for Ukraine face resistance from countries like the U.S. and Germany, who fear escalating tensions with Russia.

Former NATO officials are working towards a proposal outlining a clear path to NATO membership for Ukraine, aiming to influence the outcome of an upcoming summit in Washington. With geopolitical dynamics constantly shifting, the future of Ukraine's conflict will undoubtedly be shaped by Western decisions and support.