### Jordan Dajani's Week 12 NFL Picks: Betting Insights for 2024

In Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season, Jordan Dajani offers his betting insights after an 8-6 betting week, including a 3-2 record against the spread (ATS) for his top-five picks. Despite being let down by Jameis Winston, Dajani correctly predicted the Houston Texans' blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys and found success by fading the Tennessee Titans. This season, the Titans are 1-9 ATS, making them a profitable team to bet against.

This week's matchups feature intriguing storylines such as Caleb Williams facing his second divisional opponent and a "Harbaugh Bowl" clash. Dajani's picks are informed by CBS Sports research, and all odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

**Top Five Picks ATS Record: 23-26-1**
**Overall ATS Record: 75-88-3**

**Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns**

Russell Wilson, undefeated as the Steelers' quarterback both straight up (SU) and ATS at 4-0, faces a struggling Browns team. Even though Wilson didn't throw a touchdown against the league's worst pass defense last week, the wintry conditions in Cleveland are expected to benefit Pittsburgh more. The Browns rank fourth-worst in rushing offense and are grappling with offensive line injuries. With Nick Chubb struggling to surpass 52 rushing yards this season, the Steelers are favored to cover the spread in a low-scoring game.

**The pick: Steelers -3.5**

**Washington Commanders (-10.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys**

With the Cowboys notably three games under .500 and the Commanders three games over, this historic rivalry takes on new dynamics. The Cowboys' defensive performance plummeted after losing Dan Quinn, dropping from a top-five scoring defense last season to second-worst this year. Since Dak Prescott's injury, the Cowboys have been outscored 68-16. Given these factors, and the fact that teams favored by 10.5+ points are 5-0 ATS this season, Dajani favors the Commanders.

**The pick: Commanders -10.5**

**Houston Texans (-8) vs. Tennessee Titans**

Betting against the Titans has been fruitful this season, as they are on track for the worst ATS record since 1970. Despite controversies around penalties, the Titans' issues persist. The Texans, with Nico Collins returned and C.J. Stroud excelling at home, are 5-1 with Collins in the lineup. Stroud's significantly better performance at home is a historical outlier, bolstering Dajani's confidence in the Texans to cover.

**The pick: Texans -8**

**Denver Broncos (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders**

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been a sensation, leading all rookies in passing and total touchdowns. Last week, Nix set a record by completing 80% of his passes for 300 yards and four touchdowns. Facing a Raiders defense that ranks last in takeaways and turnover margin, and allows 28.5 points per game, Nix's Broncos are poised for another win. The Broncos previously beat the Raiders by 16 points, and Nix is a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored this year.

**The pick: Broncos -6**

**San Francisco 49ers (+2) vs. Seattle Seahawks**

The 49ers, favored in their last 37 games until this week, desperately need a turnaround. With a middling 5-5 record, their offense under Brock Purdy struggled last week, scoring a season-low 17 points. According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the 49ers' playoff chances hinge on this game. Dajani believes the 49ers will find a way to win, making them his underdog pick.

**The pick: 49ers +2**

Jordan Dajani's picks for Week 12 offer a blend of data-driven insights and strategic considerations, promising another exciting week of NFL action.