Analyzing Misleading Numbers in the 2023 NFL Season
ICARO Media Group
In the world of fantasy football, not everything is as it seems. Sometimes, the numbers on a player's stat sheet can be misleading, obscuring their true performance on the field. In a closer look at some key players from the 2023 NFL season, several individuals emerged as victims of deceptive statistics.
Garrett Wilson, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers, was one such player. Despite ranking third in targets and second in air yardage share, Wilson found himself finishing behind 38 other wide receivers in terms of fantasy points. The stark contrast between his expected fantasy points per game (17.8) and his actual average (9.7) was the widest in the league. Wilson's potential was hampered by the season-ending injury to his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.
Similarly, running back Bijan Robinson, playing for the Atlanta Falcons, fell short of expectations. Drafted in the first round, Robinson saw limited usage and finished outside the top 15 in fantasy points per game. Despite demonstrating strong receiving abilities, he received just 16.0 touches per game and had a limited number of red-zone opportunities. With hopes for a more prominent role next season, Robinson's true potential remains untapped.
Drake London, a rookie wide receiver for the Atlanta Falcons, also appeared to be underutilized. While showcasing his skills as a route runner and ranking 11th in yards per route run, London fell outside the top 25 in various receiver categories, including routes run, targets, red-zone targets, air yards, and catchable target rate. With a new coach and improved usage, London's potential for a breakout season in 2024 is promising.
Moving on to Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, his 29 touchdown passes proved to be deceptive in terms of fantasy performance. Although he led the league in passing yards, Tagovailoa struggled to assert himself as a top-20 quarterback in fantasy points per game. Limited rushing opportunities and an abundance of rushing touchdowns from the Dolphins' running backs played a significant role in hindering Tagovailoa's fantasy production. With a more balanced offensive approach, Tagovailoa is poised to have a greater impact on Miami's touchdown count in the upcoming season.
Calvin Ridley, now playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars, had a season that left fantasy managers disappointed. Despite breaking the 1,000-yard mark and scoring eight touchdowns, Ridley ranked as the WR30 in terms of fantasy points per game. However, his strong usage, including being among the league leaders in targets, air yards, red-zone targets, and end-zone targets, suggests that his fantasy output could have been much higher. With a better connection with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and more playing time, Ridley's potential for a rebound in 2024 is significant.
Lastly, running back Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys seemed to be the victim of both bad luck and personal struggles. Despite having the second-most red-zone carries and goal-to-go opportunities, Pollard converted a meager 11.5% of those chances into touchdowns. He encountered difficulties coming off a serious leg injury and saw a decline in his explosive play. Pollard's underperformance compelled the Cowboys to make changes to their offensive strategy and increase their passing rate. Although he should have scored more touchdowns, Pollard's overall performance fell below expectations.
As the dust settles on the 2023 NFL season, it becomes clear that not all numbers tell the full story. Deceptive statistics can mask a player's true potential and hinder their fantasy production. However, with changes in coaching, improved quarterback play, and favorable circumstances, these players have the opportunity to achieve greater success in the upcoming 2024 season.