In a season plagued by injuries, Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers has shown incredible resilience and determination. After battling through setbacks of hamstring and knee injuries, Jones has made a strong return to peak form just in time for the Divisional Round.

Since reclaiming his regular role, Jones has been a vital asset for the Packers, averaging an impressive 21 rush attempts over his last four games. He has consistently carried the ball at least 20 times in each of those games, all resulting in victories for the team. One standout performance was during the Wild Card Weekend, where the Packers dominated the Dallas Cowboys, establishing a commanding 27-0 lead by the second quarter.

However, despite Jones' recent success in clearing his rush attempts line under favorable game circumstances, sportsbooks have set his projected rush attempts for the upcoming game at 16.5. While this may seem like a significant decrease, there is a valid reason behind it.

As the Packers face the San Francisco 49ers as double-digit underdogs on their home turf, the game script is likely to demand a shift in strategy. Unlike previous matchups, where the Packers heavily relied on their rushing game, this game may require more from quarterback Jordan Love. The 49ers have proven to be exceptionally tough against opposing running backs, allowing the fewest rush attempts at just 15.59 per game. Furthermore, only one of the last 37 running backs faced the 49ers has surpassed 17 rushing attempts.

The 49ers' ability to sustain slow and efficient drives in the first half, controlling the ball for an impressive 52.8% of time, could significantly impact the Packers' game plan. While Jones has been effective in the early stages of games, it is doubtful that the Packers will be able to establish a double-digit lead before the halfway mark of the first quarter against the formidable 49ers. If the 49ers manage to build a lead in the first half, their controlled and methodical running game, led by McCaffrey, could limit Jones' opportunities in the second half.

Considering the challenging circumstances, it is uncertain whether Aaron Jones will have sufficient time and opportunity to surpass his rush attempts prop in this high-stakes matchup against the 49ers.

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As the Packers face a formidable opponent in the 49ers, our model's analysis reveals the potential challenges and key factors that could impact the outcome of this playoff showdown.