In a recent analysis of quarterback (QB) drafts from 2012 to 2021, surprising findings were unveiled regarding the success rate of QBs selected between the first overall pick and pick #5. It was discovered that no QB in this range had achieved the desired level of success that fans hope for when their team picks a QB early in the draft.

The study highlighted the most successful QBs chosen 2nd or 3rd overall, including Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, and Robert Griffin III. However, it was noted that no team had truly found a starting QB in this range since the selection of Matt Ryan by the Atlanta Falcons with the 3rd overall pick in 2008, until the Houston Texans struck gold with C.J. Stroud in 2023.

The revelation sparked surprise among readers of Hogs Haven, with varied reactions and coping mechanisms displayed. Some readers pointed out a cause for hope, suggesting that teams drafting from pick number 5 through 12 achieved a remarkable 78% success rate in finding quality starting QBs. This indicated that there were quality options available when teams picking 2nd and 3rd made their choices, suggesting that the issue lied with the decision-making of those selecting teams.

Commenters also highlighted that the previous analysis did not provide enough insight into the choices available to teams picking 2nd and 3rd in the draft. Some QB-needy teams may not have had better options with their picks, while others might have passed over better choices that other teams would have selected.

To provide a sense of the potential outcomes if different choices were made, a "What If" experiment was conducted. The study examined the alternatives available at the 2nd and 3rd overall picks during the specified decade. It was revealed that in five out of eight cases, a starting quality QB was available when teams picked a QB 2nd or 3rd. However, in only 3 out of 8 cases, the alternative option was a QB that another team considered worth picking in the top 12.

One notable alternative mentioned was Ryan Tannehill in the 2012 draft, who was expected to be selected around the middle of the first round. The study posited the inclusion of Tannehill as a viable alternative at the 2nd pick, despite acknowledging the unlikelihood of such a scenario due to the Washington Redskins' focus on selecting Robert Griffin III.

The analysis showcased that in a realistic alternative draft scenario, the hit rate at picks 2 and 3 increased from 0% to 38%. However, it was acknowledged that even with this significant improvement, it may not meet the expectations of many fans. Nevertheless, it provided hope that a reasonable redraft scenario could have resulted in a hit rate ranging from 25% to 38%, given the scarcity and difficulty of identifying quality starting QBs.

It was emphasized that previous draft outcomes should not constrain the decision-making of teams like the Commanders, as they approach the upcoming draft. Analysts have predicted that the 2024 draft class is one of the deepest QB classes in a decade, igniting anticipation for the Commanders' second overall pick and their potential choices.

With the draft only 30 days away, the Commanders, and other teams, face crucial decisions regarding their picks. Options such as selecting the next franchise QB, including the pick in a trade package to acquire Caleb, choosing a player at a different position, trading down for a second-tier QB or an offensive tackle, and exploring alternative positions like cornerbacks, edge rushers, punt returners, late-round wide receivers, and kickers have been presented.

As fans eagerly await the draft, the analysis offers valuable insights into the challenges and possibilities teams face when selecting QBs, reminding us that hitting on a quality starter is a complex task.