Wall Street Divided on Future Direction of Interest Rates as Powell's Remarks Spark Divergent Predictions
ICARO Media Group
In a post-FOMC scenario, Wall Street analysts are displaying a wide range of predictions regarding the future movements of interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks during a press conference have hinted at a more cautious and patient approach to monetary policy, leading to varying interpretations among financial experts.
During the conference, Powell emphasized that the next policy move is "unlikely" to be a rate hike, dispelling market fears of tighter interest rates. He suggested that rate cuts could be on the horizon once there is sufficient confidence that inflation is returning to the desired 2% target level.
The financial community widely interpreted Powell's statements as having dovish undertones, leading to market reactions such as falling Treasury yields and gains in bonds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT, for instance, witnessed a notable increase of 0.8%.
However, the uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policies have also led to volatility in risky assets, with stocks erasing gains and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY closing 0.3% lower.
Faced with this diverse range of opinions among Wall Street analysts, Benzinga has gathered perspectives that span from the most hawkish to the most dovish. Bank of America economist Michael Gapen believes that the Federal Reserve is now adopting a wait-and-see approach, expecting a more extended period before feeling confident enough to lower interest rates. He projects the first-rate cut to occur in December, assuming inflation remains stickier and slower to decrease.
Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, supports Powell's declining inflation outlook and foresees two rate cuts later in the year. David Mericle from Goldman Sachs noted Powell's strong pushback against rate hikes and emphasized the Fed's comfort in delaying rate cuts if inflation progress falters.
ING Group takes a more aggressive approach, suggesting that three rate cuts may begin as early as the September FOMC meeting. Powell's emphasis on the current monetary policy being "restrictive" and an interest rate hike being "unlikely" aligns with ING Group's forecast. It considers business and employment surveys as indicators for a slowdown that could justify the anticipated rate cuts.
Citi analysts retain the most dovish outlook, focusing on the Fed's pivot against market concerns of a hawkish turn. They expect rate reductions to start as early as July and anticipate a total of 100 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, with softer inflation or cooler labor market developments triggering the Fed's decision to lower rates.
As Wall Street remains divided on the future direction of interest rates, market participants continue to closely monitor economic indicators for further insights into the Fed's upcoming policy decisions.