In Bogota, Colombia, a small corner has transformed into a makeshift home for over seven million Venezuelan migrants who fled their country in search of a better life. Facing an economic and political crisis, these individuals have come together in informal communities, supporting each other as they combat homesickness and integrate into their new surroundings.

Maria Alvarez, a 27-year-old single mother from Valencia, left Venezuela in 2017 with her one-year-old son, Gabriel. Like many others, she left behind family members scattered across the globe. With most of the migrants leaving Venezuela after 2014 due to corruption and mismanagement, the majority have been granted work permits in Colombia. Alvarez, now working as a manicurist, has found stability and a new partner in her adopted country.

However, the longing to return home still tugs at their hearts. Despite feeling welcomed and having built a life in Colombia, Alvarez tearfully expressed her dream of going back to Venezuela. For years, the authoritarian government of Nicolas Maduro has clung to power, preventing any hopes of a return for the migrants. But now, there seems to be a glimmer of hope.

In an unexpected turn, Venezuela is set to hold an election this month, challenging Maduro's government with opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. This marks the first election in a decade where Maduro could potentially be unseated. Recent polls favor Gonzalez, with over a twenty percentage point lead over Maduro. The presence of electoral observers from the Carter Center and the UN further adds to the anticipation.

Yet, skepticism remains. The Venezuelan government has a history of suppressing the opposition through rigged votes and arrests. In 2014, 2017, and 2019, opposition protests were met with repression, leading to countless arrests and exiles. Laura Dib, a Venezuela expert at the Washington Office for Latin America, finds it difficult to believe that Maduro will willingly give up power.

However, this time feels different. Massive participation, international observation, and pressure from within and outside the government may open up new possibilities for change. Alvarez and other migrants in Bogota share the sentiment that Maduro can only win the election through manipulation. If there is a new government, Alvarez and many others would eagerly return home immediately.

The outcome of this closely watched election holds profound consequences not only for migrants like Alvarez but also for the United States. Over half a million Venezuelan migrants have made their way to the US border in the past three years, highlighting the urgency for a resolution. Experts believe that if Gonzalez emerges victorious, some migrants may choose to return to Venezuela. However, if Maduro holds onto power, an even larger influx of migrants to the US border is expected.

As countries like Colombia and Panama tighten their migration policies, erecting barriers to deter free movement, the Biden administration finds itself at the center of it all. The partial lifting of oil sanctions and the resumption of repatriation flights back to Caracas played a role in Maduro's agreement to hold a free and fair election. Direct negotiations between the Maduro government and the US State Department have faltered but may resume soon.

The world watches with bated breath as Venezuelans hope for change and the opportunity to rebuild their lives in their homeland. The outcome of this election will not only shape the future of Venezuela but also have significant implications for neighboring countries and the United States as they navigate immigration and political challenges.