In a high-stakes visit to Ukraine this week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy will hear Ukrainian officials' plea to lift restrictions on the use of long-range missiles to target sites within Russia. Kyiv has been urging its allies, including the US and UK, to remove the ban on using these missiles due to various concerns. While the Biden administration acknowledges the limited number of necessary missiles and Russia's relocation of air assets, there is still debate on whether to grant Ukraine permission for inside-Russia strikes.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Mike McCaul revealed that during a conversation with Blinken, he was informed that the top diplomat would be delivering promising news to Ukraine. McCaul, who has been pressuring the Biden administration to remove limits on Ukraine's missile use, believes that Blinken's message will grant Kyiv permission to use US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems across Russia's border. However, a senior administration official suggested that the Biden team has not yet made a final decision and that Blinken will relay the Ukrainian arguments to the US national security team for deliberation.

The trip to Kyiv by Blinken and Lammy holds significance as both countries have been at the forefront of providing Ukraine with weapons, including tanks, British Storm Shadow missiles, and American Army Tactical Missile Systems, which have a longer range than any previously possessed by Ukraine. However, restrictions have been imposed on where Ukraine can use these weapons inside Russia. The Ukrainians argue that lifting these restrictions would allow them to target critical Russian infrastructure and logistics nodes involved in Moscow's war efforts.

If the Biden administration grants permission, it would follow a pattern of initially resisting but eventually allowing Ukraine greater capabilities. In May, Biden permitted limited US weapons strikes in Russia for cross-border defense operations. However, Ukraine and its advocates have been pushing for broader permissions to capitalize on their battlefield gains. Army Tactical Missile Systems have a range of up to 190 miles, enabling Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia, which would escalate the conflict significantly if approved.

During a recent visit to Washington, Ukraine's defense minister and senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted that many key targets, including critical infrastructure and Russian logistics nodes, remain within range of the missiles. Nonetheless, the Biden administration has emphasized the limited tactical benefit of easing restrictions since Russia has relocated its air assets out of missile range. Officials also claim that Ukraine does not possess sufficient Army Tactical Missile Systems to strike essential targets within Russia, and the US has a limited stockpile available for Ukraine.

One Biden administration official raised concerns about the dwindling pool of available Army missiles, stating that the limited supply in the Army's inventory hampers their ability to provide more without affecting American military readiness. While defense contractor Lockheed Martin has the capacity to produce several hundred missiles per year, all current orders are contracted to allies as the Army transitions to the longer-range Precision Strike Missile.

Chairman McCaul suggests that recent devastating Russian attacks have influenced the Biden administration's calculus, speculating that the White House aims to broker a peace deal before the upcoming US elections. He believes that such negotiations would require Ukrainian forces to secure victories on the ground. However, there is no official confirmation of this theory.

As the Biden administration's updated Ukraine strategy arrives on Capitol Hill, some Democratic allies in Congress are also advocating for the removal of constraints on Ukraine. Senators Mark Kelly and Richard Blumenthal plan to press White House officials on the matter, highlighting the need to continually evaluate and support Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression.

The decision on whether to permit Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia lies with the Biden administration, which will carefully consider the arguments put forth by Ukrainian officials during Blinken and Lammy's visit. The outcome of this deliberation will have far-reaching implications for the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe.