Trump Leads in Key Swing States, Tightening Race Against Harris

ICARO Media Group
Politics
24/09/2024 19h56

Polling in seven pivotal swing states has taken a concerning turn for the Democrats, as indicated by political analyst Nate Silver. The latest New York Times/Siena College survey, conducted from September 17 to 21, shows President Donald Trump leading in three of the swing states, namely Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. These states, pivotal in securing victory in the upcoming presidential election, are showing a tight race with fluctuating leads between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

In Arizona, a state crucial for both candidates, Trump is currently leading Harris by five points, with 50 percent to 45 percent. This lead contrasts sharply with a prior August poll by the same outlets that showed Harris ahead by four points. Similarly, in Georgia, another key swing state, Trump has secured a four-point lead over Harris, with 49 percent to 45 percent. North Carolina, where Trump is ahead by two points, is historically Republican territory, last voting Democrat in 2008, with Trump winning narrowly in 2020.

Nate Silver disclosed the New York Times and Siena College's track record of defying expectations with their surveys. Despite the recent setback for Harris, Silver's election model still projects a victory for the Vice President. This is mostly due to Harris already being slightly behind in these swing states, which are not essential for her minimum viable path to an Electoral College triumph. The prediction model continues to favor Harris in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, while indicating Trump's potential wins in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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