**Russia’s Nuclear Posturing Raises Tensions Amid Ukraine Conflict**

Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine signals its intent to deter Ukraine's allies from increasing their involvement in the conflict by drawing ambiguously-defined red lines. The warning came as Moscow announced it would retaliate following Ukraine's use of longer-range US missiles against Russian territory for the first time in the 1,000-day war. President Vladimir Putin marked the occasion by issuing a stark nuclear threat.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed that the missile attack revealed Western nations' desire to escalate the confrontation. Concurrently, Putin signed a decree lowering the threshold for deploying nuclear weapons—a move swiftly condemned by the White House, the UK, and the European Union as "irresponsible."

This development followed Washington’s approval of Ukraine's use of ATACMS against Russian military targets, a significant shift aligning with Ukraine's longstanding requests. Russian military analyst Vassily Kashin suggested that such an attack would have been "impossible without the direct involvement of Americans," citing potential assistance from French or British forces with their Scalp/Storm Shadow missiles. Kashin noted that the Kremlin views these actions as direct attacks on Russian territory, though the international community does not recognize the annexed regions of Crimea and the Donbas as part of Russia.

Putin’s nuclear threats, which commenced shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, may be an attempt to lend credibility to these repeated warnings. The Telegram channel Rybar, known for its close connections to the Russian military, commented on the diminishing seriousness with which Russia’s red lines are perceived, adding that this undermines Russia’s strategic flexibility.

Maxim Starchak, a specialist on Russian nuclear policy at Queen's University in Canada, observed that the new doctrine not only "lowers the threshold" for nuclear weapons use but also increases ambiguity. "Russia mentions the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the event of a territorial threat," he said, but the nature and scale of such a threat remain unclear.

Aside from the nuclear issue, recent developments include the arrival of North Korean troops in Russia and US-supplied missiles to Ukraine, both contributing to the escalation. Although these factors don't suggest an imminent nuclear strike, they indicate a growing risk of direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries, according to Starchak.

Independent analyst Pavel Podvig, based in Geneva, highlighted that the intensifying Western support for Ukraine is delaying Russia’s objectives. He posited that Russia might be trying to maintain its forward momentum. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center suggested that with the costly territorial gains made by Russia recently, Putin might want to capitalize on a strategic window before any potential shifts in US leadership, particularly if a more accommodating Trump were to take office. She emphasized Putin's tactic of framing current US policies under Biden as "irresponsible."