Russian Advance Threatens Ukrainian Defensive Line in Velyka Novosilka
ICARO Media Group
**Russian Forces Flank Ukrainian Troops, Threatening Donetsk Defensive Line**
The situation in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast has taken a critical turn as Ukrainian forces grapple with the fallout of their defeat in the strategic town of Vuhledar. This setback has enabled a determined Russian force to advance perilously close to flanking Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.
Andrew Perpetua, an open-source intelligence analyst, sounded the alarm: "The news coming from the Velyka Novosilka area is very bad. There is no way to sugarcoat it—the area has reached crisis and needs immediate intervention."
For two years, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade formed the backbone of Ukraine’s defensive line in southern Donetsk, successfully holding off numerous Russian assaults on Vuhledar. However, the Ukrainian command's strategy of deploying available forces to high-risk operations, such as the August invasion of Russia's Kursk Oblast, left the brigade vulnerable. The eventual depletion of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade culminated in a retreat from Vuhledar in late September, effectively ceding more than a hundred square miles of Donetsk to Russian control.
The loss of Vuhledar has severely destabilized Ukraine's front line in Donetsk. Despite recent efforts, including a successful drone attack on a mixed Russian assault group, Ukrainian forces are under significant pressure. Russian units, possibly from the 131st Motor Rifle Regiment, 37th Motor Rifle Brigade, or 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, have maneuvered around Velyka Novosilka, exploiting weaknesses in its defenses that were primarily designed to repel southern attacks.
The Ukrainian garrison, consisting of units like the 48th Assault Battalion, the Presidential Brigade, and the 17th National Guard Brigade, now faces the threat of partial encirclement. The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies elaborated on the peril, noting that Russian forces might attempt to bypass the eastern flank and escalate pressure from the south, potentially compelling a Ukrainian withdrawal from Velyka Novosilka and opening the door for further Russian advances.
Perpetua emphasizes that while losing Velyka Novosilka would not be a catastrophe in itself, the real disaster lies in Russian forces attacking parallel to the defensive line, compromising its overall integrity. The critical challenge now is Ukraine's lack of reserves to halt these infiltrations, necessitating the diversion of forces from other areas to reinforce Donetsk.
"The strength of these defenses, and the difficulty of attacking this ground, allowed Ukraine to underman these areas to shift forces to other areas. That's over. Now you need to begin sacrificing other areas to defend here," Perpetua warned.
The evolving dynamics in Donetsk Oblast underscore the precarious position of Ukrainian forces as they strive to stabilize their defensive lines against a progressively assertive Russian onslaught.