The dawn of the 12-team College Football Playoff has brought forth a new era in predicting the bracket for the upcoming season. With the seemingly endless offseason, rigid groupthink tends to dominate the discussions, leading to potentially inaccurate assumptions about which teams will make it to the playoffs. However, Ralph Russo, the keeper of The Associated Press poll, has provided a formula based on historical data to guide our predictions.

According to Russo's analysis, which compares the preseason AP poll to the final CFP selection committee ranking for each of the past 10 seasons, the best way to guess the bracket involves selecting teams from various ranking ranges. The formula includes choosing four teams from the top five, two teams from the No. 6-10 range, two teams from No. 11-20, one team from No. 21-25, and three unranked teams. These choices must adhere to the CFP's selection rules, ensuring a diverse representation of conferences and giving automatic bids to conference champions.

Applying these guidelines, I filled out a bracket based on my own predictions and analysis. While I initially believed all five teams in the AP poll's top five - Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama - would make it to the CFP, history suggests at least one won't. Therefore, I had to eliminate one team, and unfortunately, Texas was chosen due to their significant personnel losses from last season.

Moving forward, I selected two teams from No. 6-10, which included Notre Dame and Ole Miss. Notre Dame, despite their high ranking, may need an impressive record of 11-1 to secure a spot in the CFP, making a 10-2 season a possibility. For Penn State, any shortcomings in their offense could lead to their exclusion from the bracket. Michigan, under new leadership and facing an unsettled quarterback competition, also presents a potential miss in making the cut.

The next group, No. 11-20, proved challenging due to the AP voters favoring the Big 12 champion contenders - Utah, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. However, I chose to save my Big 12 champ for the unranked group, considering there are six other potential champions in a densely packed league. Instead, I opted for Tennessee, a team I had previously included in my original bracket projection, and Oklahoma, as a potential resurgent team under coach Gus Malzahn's guidance.

Selecting one team from No. 21-25, I chose Iowa, a team with an uneven schedule in the new Big Ten division. If their offense can perform adequately, they have a chance to go 10-2 or even 11-1, potentially securing a spot in the Big Ten title game.

With three unranked selections remaining, I needed a Big 12 champion, a Group of 5 conference champion, and one additional at-large team. I chose Appalachian State as my Group of 5 representative, as they have the potential to make an impact in the Sun Belt and hand Clemson their only loss. For the final at-large spot, I selected West Virginia, a team that could potentially rise in the rankings after facing Oklahoma State and Arizona, and a potential loss to UCF in a rematch for the Big 12 title.

The bracket would look as follows:

No. 12 Appalachian State vs No. 5 Oregon (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 West Virginia vs No. 6 Alabama (RichRod Bowl)
No. 10 Iowa vs No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma vs No. 8 Tennessee

The winner of each matchup would then advance to face No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Florida State, and No. 4 UCF in their respective bowl games.

As we eagerly await the start of the season, it's crucial to remember that surprises and unexpected outcomes are common in college football. Therefore, fans and analysts alike are encouraged to use Ralph Russo's formula and let their imaginations run wild when predicting their own brackets.