In the wake of Donald Trump's selection of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate for the upcoming US presidential election, European politicians and diplomats are preparing for potential changes in their relationship with the United States. Vance's views on Ukraine, security, and trade have raised concerns among European leaders.

During the Munich Security Conference, Vance voiced his criticism of US aid to Ukraine, suggesting that Europe should recognize the US' shifting focus towards East Asia. He argued that Europe's reliance on the American security blanket had allowed their own security to weaken. This stance has raised doubts about Vance's commitment to Ukraine's security within NATO.

Nils Schmid, a senior MP in German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, acknowledged the potential for a more isolationist approach under Vance and an unpredictable Trump. However, he remained hopeful that a Republican presidency would continue to support NATO. Schmid also expressed concerns about the possibility of renewed trade wars with the US if Trump were to secure a second term.

European Union diplomats have emphasized that they are well aware of the implications of a potential Trump re-election, regardless of his running mate. They likened the EU's readiness for such a scenario to a sailing boat preparing for a storm, predicting rough times ahead regardless of their efforts to mitigate the impact.

Ukraine, heavily reliant on US support, expressed confidence in its relationship with the US under a Trump-Vance ticket. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that he did not fear Trump's potential return to the presidency and believed that most Republicans supported Ukraine and its people. Zelensky also highlighted the common ground he shares with Boris Johnson, the former UK prime minister and a friend of both Zelensky and Trump.

However, concerns arise with Vance's indifference towards Ukraine, as he previously stated that he "doesn't really care what happens in Ukraine, one way or the other" and played a role in delaying a military aid package to the country. Ukrainian officials hope to convince him otherwise and invite him to experience the situation on the ground firsthand.

Hungary's Viktor Orban, a prominent ally of the Trump-Vance ticket within the European Union, returned from a visit with both Trump and Zelensky, advocating for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. EU leaders received a letter from Orban, stating that Trump would quickly demand such negotiations upon assuming the presidency, citing detailed plans.

Conversely, concerns have been raised about Orban's recent "peace missions" to Moscow and Beijing, with critics accusing him of abusing Hungary's presidency of the European Council. European Commission officials have even boycotted meetings in Hungary due to Orban's actions.

Trade tensions between the EU and the US have been a contentious issue during Trump's presidency, with tariffs imposed on EU-produced steel and aluminium. If re-elected, Trump has floated the idea of imposing a 10% tariff on all overseas imports. European capitals fear the prospect of renewed economic altercations, which could have disastrous consequences for the continent.

With Vance criticizing Germany's military preparedness, the pressure on Europe's largest economy to play a more significant role in bolstering European security intensifies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, previously criticized for hesitancy in supplying weapons to Ukraine, has emphasized Germany's position as the second-largest provider of military aid to Kyiv. Additionally, Germany has met the 2% GDP defense spending target for the first time since the end of the Cold War, albeit through short-term budgeting.

As the US presidential election draws closer, European leaders brace themselves for potential shifts in the transatlantic relationship under the leadership of Trump and Vance. The implications for Ukraine, security alliances, and trade remain uncertain, signaling challenging times ahead for Europe.