Rafal Trzaskowski, the center-right Civic Platform candidate, is currently leading in the polls and holds the support of Poland's ruling coalition. Trzaskowski's victory could be critical for the pro-European, center-left government led by Donald Tusk, which has struggled to implement its reform agenda due to repeated blocks by the sitting president, Andrzej Duda.

Since taking power about 18 months ago, Tusk’s government has seen its attempts at legal reform and social progress stymied by Duda, who has either vetoed government bills or referred them to a constitutional court loaded with supporters of the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. As a result, the anticipated changes in areas such as the rule of law, abortion rights, and media reforms have been few, leading to widespread discontent among the electorate.

Trzaskowski, who has been the mayor of Warsaw since 2018, represents a liberal approach within Tusk's Civic Platform party and favors policies that support LGBTQ+ rights, a more liberal abortion law, and adherence to the EU's climate policies. Despite his relatively young age at 53, his extensive political career and current position have cemented him as a strong contender for the presidency.

On the other side of the spectrum is Karol Nawrocki, a historian from Gdansk who heads Poland's Institute of National Remembrance. Nawrocki, though running as an independent, has the backing of PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Nawrocki has faced several controversies during his campaign, including allegations of connections to illegal activities and a dubious real estate transaction which he has since attempted to mitigate.

In a bid to bolster his campaign, Nawrocki has garnered support from international figures such as US President Donald Trump and far-right Romanian politician George Simion. Nawrocki's platform emphasizes a nationalist stance, opposing EU centralization, immigration, and the EU’s Green Deal while also criticizing aid to Ukraine and portraying Germany negatively.

Despite these high-profile endorsements, Nawrocki is trailing behind Trzaskowski in the polls, with the far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen also posing a minor threat. Mentzen's platform resonates particularly with young voters, advocating for gun rights and a radical anti-abortion stance.

The election is poised to move to a runoff on June 1, necessitating a showdown between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. As Poland waits in anticipation, the future of its political and social landscape hangs in the balance, with the ruling coalition and its supporters hoping for a definitive break from the current gridlock in governance.