### Vance's Impact on Ohio House Race Diminishes as Kaptur Maintains Lead

In Toledo, Ohio, early Republican optimism regarding the selection of Sen. JD Vance as Donald Trump's running mate has fizzled, particularly in the intensely competitive congressional district where the GOP is striving to unseat long-time incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Despite initial hopes, Vance's influence has not significantly altered the race's dynamics, leaving the Republicans still struggling for an advantage.

Marcy Kaptur's seat had initially appeared as a prime opportunity for Republicans to secure a pickup. The GOP had several advantages this cycle: they have redesigned the district to be more favorable to them through redistricting, and they avoided the pitfalls of a weak candidate plagued by personal issues, which had previously bolstered Kaptur's win by 13 points in 2022. Vance was expected to provide the upsurge needed to tilt the balance. However, a recent poll shows Kaptur leading her Republican challenger, Derek Merrin, by 10 points, with Vance playing a minimal role in the contest.

Interestingly, Vance's presence is notably absent from local promotional materials that prominently feature Trump, Merrin, and GOP Senate contender Bernie Moreno. POLITICO's advertising data review revealed that Vance hasn't been highlighted in GOP broadcast campaigns either, despite significant external spending. Interviews conducted within the district highlight a tepid to negative reception towards Vance from a variety of community members, including voters, politicians, and union representatives.

Stephanie Garcia, an insurance worker from downtown Toledo, echoed a sentiment of disapproval, labeling both Trump and Vance as lacking in character, a crucial attribute in her judgment. Union President Tony Totty acknowledged a trend among members to split their votes between the candidates, favoring Kaptur and Sen. Sherrod Brown over Vance.

Some local supporters of Merrin and Trump, like Darlene Fisher, confessed to knowing little about Vance before his debate performance, indicating his limited impact on their voting decision. GOP leaders initially praised Vance's potential to ignite enthusiasm within Ohio, yet grassroots Republicans voiced concerns quietly about his actual contribution due to his existing alignment with Trump's political stance in a safely Republican state.

Rep. Kaptur, who has sustained her office through strong local ties over four decades, remains unfazed by Vance's participation, casually dismissing his potential influence. She pointed out that Vance, with just two years in the Senate, has yet to show meaningful results. Meanwhile, the Democratic shift at the top of the presidential ticket further complicated GOP strategies, dramatically altering polling landscapes.

Despite these challenges, Republicans remain hopeful about the district's trajectory towards their favor, buoyed slightly by the flaws of previous GOP candidates like J.R. Majewski. Republican spokesperson Mike Marinella remains optimistic about Merrin's prospects, leveraging Trump's and Vance's momentum, whereas Merrin himself underscores his campaign's focus on combating economic issues and supporting Trump-Vance policies.

Vance's lack of visibility extends beyond this district, absent in the contests involving Senate candidate Moreno and first-term Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes. Ohio Republicans argue that Vance's focus might be better placed in more competitive swing states, highlighting his significant commitments and advocacy within the state.

Kaptur addresses GOP's criticisms about her long tenure by emphasizing the value of experience in tackling intricate issues like Great Lakes water quality and rail infrastructure, launching a robust defense of her career in Congress. Her familiarity in the district might be both an asset and a liability, with voters exhibiting mixed feelings towards her lengthy incumbency.

Despite her endurance, Kaptur has offered no definite plans regarding retirement, emphasizing her dedication to her constituents and the mutual support through years of service. As the race unfolds, her deep-rooted connections could play a pivotal role in any potential reelection victory.