Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists have raised the probability of a US recession within the next year from 15% to 25%. Despite this revision, the economists led by Jan Hatzius assure clients that there are several reasons to remain optimistic and not fear an impending economic slump.

In a recent report, the Goldman economists acknowledged the increase in recession risk but emphasized that they still view the likelihood of a downturn as limited. They pointed out that the recent rise in unemployment should not be a cause for major concern, as there are other factors at play that suggest a resilient economy.

The economists highlighted various reasons for their optimistic outlook. Firstly, they cited the continued strength of the US job market, with unemployment still at historically low levels despite the recent increase. They also noted that consumer spending remains robust, fueled by wage growth and low inflation.

Additionally, the report highlighted the Federal Reserve's ability to provide support in case of a downturn. According to the Goldman economists, the current stance of monetary policy provides room for the Fed to cut interest rates and stimulate economic growth if necessary.

While the probability of a recession has been raised, the Goldman Sachs economists believe that the US economy still possesses the necessary resilience to weather potential headwinds. They encouraged their clients to focus on the positive indicators and not succumb to excessive pessimism.

It is important to note that economic forecasts are subject to change, as multiple factors can influence the future trajectory of the economy. The Goldman Sachs economists will continue to monitor and assess these factors to provide up-to-date insights and guidance to their clients.

In conclusion, Goldman Sachs economists have increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%. However, they maintain that recession risk remains limited and urge clients not to fear a potential economic slump. With a strong job market, robust consumer spending, and potential support from the Federal Reserve, the economists remain optimistic about the resilience of the US economy.