In a pivotal moment for France, an upcoming election threatens to disrupt the European Union, ignite a potential financial crisis, and destabilize the nation's governance. The choices before the French electorate are stark: a far-right populist government, a far-left coalition, or the continuation of an increasingly ungovernable status quo. The outcome holds immense implications for immigration policies, trade plans, and the future of President Emmanuel Macron.

The economic landscape in France casts a shadow on the election. President Macron leaves behind a 5.5% GDP budget deficit and a staggering 110% GDP national debt. These fiscal issues have already led to the downgrading of the country's credit rating and an investigation by the European Union for breaching the stability and growth pact. The anticipation of drastic fiscal loosening, regardless of the election's outcome, has caused French bond yields to surge, increasing the risk of a full-scale financial crisis.

The Front Populaire, a diverse alliance comprising the extreme Left, socialists, communists, greens, and other factions, presents a radical and economically concerning manifesto. Their platform includes immediate tax increases of €50 billion annually, additional spending of at least €106 billion per year, reintroduction of punitive wealth tax, income tax hikes, and the reversal of Macron's reforms. Their stance on gender self-identification, immigration liberalization, and controversial policies towards Israel has drawn criticism and raised concerns about the country's financial stability.

While a hung parliament remains a possibility, the election's frontrunner is Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen's deputy, leading the Rassemblement National (RN). A victory for the RN, a far-right party, would send shockwaves throughout the global community and likely ignite disorder, violence, and strikes within France. Financial markets would also react negatively, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and White House disapproving of Bardella's proposed tax cuts and anticipating a rise in deficits. The European Central Bank may even refuse to stabilize the markets by buying French bonds.

Bardella's broader agenda and the RN's compatibility with EU membership also raise concerns. While Bardella advocates for stricter immigration policies and the rejection of some post-war rules, the party no longer explicitly supports leaving the EU due to fears of potential currency devaluation. Nevertheless, a gradual process of Frexit by stealth could be initiated if Bardella's government manages to stay afloat in its early stages.

The transformation of the RN from its controversial past is a point of contention, particularly for those who have experienced the party's racist and anti-Semitic rhetoric. Marine Le Pen has distanced herself from her father's views and adopted pro-Israel positions. Nevertheless, skepticism remains, and voters will be watching closely to see if the party's transformation is genuine.

The potential implications of the French election extend beyond the nation's borders. For the UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the election could boost his centrism credentials in the short term, while also challenging Labour's pro-European stance in the face of a potential rightward shift across Europe. The future of Channel crossings and immigration policies would also be affected, potentially leading to a surge in migrants seeking entry to the UK.

As the tectonic plates of the European political landscape shift, France finds itself at a critical juncture. The choice made by French voters will have far-reaching consequences, not only for the country but also for the European Union's stability and the wider geopolitical landscape.