In the wake of the recent attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the FBI have issued a bulletin to law enforcement agencies nationwide, cautioning them about the potential for violent extremists to carry out "follow-on or retaliatory" attacks at events related to the 2024 presidential election.

The bulletin, released on Monday night as the Republican National Convention commenced in Milwaukee, urged local, state, and federal law enforcement, as well as their partners, to remain vigilant and report any suspicious behavior. It expressed concern, particularly due to the threats, encouragement, and references to violence made by individuals in certain online communities in response to the assassination attempt.

The bulletin emphasized that political rallies and campaign events could be attractive targets for "lone actors" or small groups of extremists. It also acknowledged the difficulty of detecting such threats, given the highly personal nature of radicalization and mobilization towards violence.

The DHS and FBI indicated that even before the incident involving Trump, politically motivated attacks and plots against government officials and candidates had been observed. Interestingly, disruptive tactics like hoax bomb threats, swatting, and the sending of letters with white powder to election officials and offices had also been recorded.

While no definitive motive or ideology has been established regarding the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, the bulletin shared some preliminary information about his actions leading up to the attack. It revealed that he had purchased 50 rounds of ammunition on the day of the incident and had received several packages, some marked as possibly containing hazardous material, in the months before the attack. Improvised explosive devices were also discovered in his vehicle and residence.

Speaking about the heightened threat environment, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas condemned acts of violence in the country's democracy, stressing the need for increased security measures. The Republican National Convention has seen the implementation of significant physical and technical enhancements, including miles of anti-scale fencing, screening technology, and tactical support. Agents and officers from Homeland Security Investigations and the Transportation Security Administration have also been deployed to the convention.

In a separate report issued by the Joint Regional Intelligence Center in California, it was highlighted that the number of federal charges against individuals threatening public officials has steadily increased since 2017. The report stated that between 2013 and 2016, an average of 38 threat-related cases were initiated annually. However, this number rose to an average of 62 cases per year between 2017 and 2022, with further growth recorded in 2023 and 2024.

The report also noted that while communicated threats can be concerning, they are a poor indicator of actual violence. Studies have shown that fewer than 10% of individuals who carry out attacks on public officials voiced threats directly to their victims or to law enforcement. The report underscored that friends, family members, and acquaintances might be better positioned to identify signs of potential violence.

As the country braces itself for the 2024 presidential election, law enforcement agencies will need to maintain a heightened state of awareness to ensure the safety of election-related targets and the general public.