**US Intelligence Deems Putin’s Nuclear Threats as Bluster Amid Concerns Over Hybrid Warfare**

US intelligence sources indicate that Russia’s nuclear threat, despite increasing rhetoric from President Vladimir Putin, is relatively low. This evaluation comes as Washington has relaxed restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American long-range weapons, including the ATACMS missiles, without significantly heightening the risk of nuclear escalation.

The assessment, confirmed by five US intelligence sources including senior officials and congressional aides, has remained consistent over a span of seven months. These evaluations were reaffirmed after President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with ATACMS missiles, which can strike targets up to 190 miles away. A congressional aide noted that these missiles would not alter Russia's nuclear strategy.

Instead, US officials predict an escalation in Russia’s hybrid warfare efforts, such as sabotage operations in Europe, intending to exert pressure on the West. Angela Stent of Georgetown University emphasized the importance of monitoring Russia's potential hybrid responses, though she acknowledged that concerns about escalation have always existed and are now growing.

During a summit in Astana, Putin indicated that Russian military officials are designating new targets across Ukraine. Reuters sources revealed internal debates within the Biden administration over loosening weapon restrictions due to worries about potential retaliatory strikes on US or NATO assets and the risk of nuclear escalation. Ultimately, Biden shifted his stance, influenced by North Korea’s military support for Russia in the ongoing Ukraine conflict.

Despite some officials now considering previous fears of escalation to be overstated, they continue to warn of Russia’s capability for covert retaliation. Recent US intelligence suggests that while Russia is unlikely to resort to nuclear escalation, it may increase its focus on unconventional tactics.

On November 19, Ukraine deployed US-made ATACMS missiles against a facility in Bryansk, Russia. This was followed by Putin signing a decree that lowers the threshold for nuclear weapon use, drawing widespread condemnation from Western nations. Rumors circulated about a possible Russian strike using the RS-26 Rubezh missile on November 20.

Further tensions followed on November 21 when Russia launched the “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile at Dnipro. Putin praised the non-nuclear, hypersonic missile as a success and announced plans for further tests. Speculation arose regarding the potential return of nuclear weapons to Ukraine, but such claims were dismissed as unfounded, according to the Kyiv Post.

The ongoing debate over weapon restrictions continues to influence US policy towards Ukraine. While immediate nuclear threats appear diminished, the possibility of Russia employing covert retaliation tactics remains a significant concern for US officials.