The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based independent think tank, has assessed that Russia's "third wave" of assaults on the eastern Donetsk town of Avdiivka is unlikely to result in a swift Russian advance in the area. The ISW made this analysis in its latest report on the conflict in Ukraine, highlighting that clashes near Avdiivka have been intensifying.

Avdiivka, considered the gateway to the city of Donetsk, has witnessed an influx of Russian forces since October 10 in their attempt to seize control. However, the ISW notes that the recent offensive efforts by Russian troops have weaker mechanized capabilities compared to previous waves in October.

Ukrainian officials and commanders have been actively monitoring the situation. Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated on his Telegram channel that Russian forces initiated a third wave of assaults on Avdiivka, while Brigadier General Oleksandr Shtupun of the Tavriisk Group of Forces confirmed that this "third wave" began on November 22.

The ISW report also reveals that Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed three Russian tanks and seven armored fighting vehicles on November 22. This indicates that Russian forces are currently engaging in a smaller set of mechanized assaults compared to their previous offensive operations.

Since October 9, Russian forces have suffered significant losses, with 197 confirmed damaged and destroyed vehicles in their offensive operations near Avdiivka. The ISW suggests that the Russian military spent October and November preparing for a series of infantry-led ground assaults to compensate for these heavy-equipment losses.

While large-scale infantry-led ground assaults pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces defending Avdiivka, the think tank states that they will not lead to a rapid Russian advance in the area.

An interview with a Russian military officer published by Russian media outlet RTVI supports this assessment. The officer, Roman Saponkov, acknowledged that Ukraine has been successfully repelling Russia's offensive on Avdiivka, stating that they are "completely holding back" the Russian forces.

Additionally, recent reports from independent Russian news website Pravda highlight a new tactic employed by Russian forces near Avdiivka. They detonated a 500-kilogram explosive charge in a tunnel beneath a Ukrainian position, which reportedly left the Ukrainian military unable to counter the advance. This tactic of tunneling closer to Ukrainian positions aims to provide concealment and surprise.

In light of these developments, the ISW analysis emphasizes that the ongoing assaults on Avdiivka by Russian forces may pose challenges for Ukrainian defenses, but a rapid Russian advance in the area is unlikely.

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