After a two-month silence, The Economist has finally released an update on the global daily estimate of excess deaths attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Their latest projections reveal that the cumulative global excess death toll now stands at a staggering 28.5 million, which is 4.1 times higher than the official COVID death toll reported at the end of 2023, surpassing 7 million.

The Economist's tracker, which utilizes a machine-learning model to estimate excess deaths in every country since the pandemic began, had mysteriously stopped updating in mid-November just as the winter surge of the JN.1 variant emerged. This hiatus had left many questioning the true extent of the pandemic's impact.

In the United States, the winter surge began in mid-October and peaked just before the New Year. However, the Biden administration's decision to scrap the COVID public health emergency (PHE) declaration meant that the wave went largely unreported in official figures. Instead, estimates of the actual infection rates were derived from wastewater collection data monitored by organizations like Biobot Analytics.

Data scientists like Jay Weiland and Dr. Mike Hoerger took it upon themselves to model these wastewater data and provide crucial information on infection rates through their social media accounts. Their efforts have helped fill the void left by the CDC and the political establishment in providing accurate public health guidance.

While daily COVID-19 infections in the US are currently trending downwards, infection rates remain alarmingly high, with an estimated nearly 1 million cases per day reported earlier this week. Over 100 million Americans are believed to have been infected during the past three months of this surge, accounting for approximately one-third of the population. Grimly, the majority of these cases are reinfections, which significantly increase the risks of long-term consequences associated with COVID-19, such as Long COVID, heart attacks, and strokes.

Extrapolating these infection estimates to the global scale, it is possible that 1-2 billion more infections have occurred during the ongoing global wave of JN.1. This suggests that tens of millions, if not more, cases of Long COVID may develop in the coming weeks and months. Furthermore, the long-term consequences of repeated infections on cardiovascular, metabolic, and neurological health remain unknown but are expected to be significant.

In regards to acute COVID mortality, the World Health Organization (WHO) recently announced that close to 10,000 people officially died of COVID-19 in December, pushing the cumulative toll past 7 million. However, these numbers are regarded as undercounts, as fewer than 50 countries, mostly in Europe and the Americas, are reporting to the WHO. Considering the dismantling of pandemic tracking measures and attempts to obfuscate real figures, the true scale of mortality may be much higher.

Reflecting on The Economist's excess death tracker, it is now evident that a surge in mortality was occurring in October, reaching a peak of over 10,000 daily deaths by the end of November. These elevated figures persisted through December. However, the drop in deaths reported for January could be attributed to a lag in data collection from various countries and institutions, and are likely to be revised upwards in the future.

One striking observation is the stark disparity between official COVID deaths and excess deaths, with the latter exceeding the former by as much as 50-fold or more. On November 27, for example, only 183 COVID deaths were officially reported, while there were 10,200 excess deaths above the pre-pandemic period.

The newly released update by The Economist serves as a stark reminder of the magnitude of the global COVID-19 crisis and the need for accurate reporting and tracking of excess deaths. It emphasizes the urgent necessity of implementing robust public health measures and strategies to prevent further loss of life and mitigate the long-term consequences of this devastating pandemic.