In an exclusive interview with Newsweek, a senior defense official on NATO's eastern frontier has predicted that the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is likely to continue through 2024. Kusti Salm, the permanent secretary at Estonia's Defense Military, emphasized the importance of understanding the statistics and planning for a protracted struggle against the Kremlin's full-scale invasion.

Describing the situation as attritional warfare, Salm underscored Russia's intention to outlast and outproduce their Ukrainian and Western adversaries. To counter Moscow's strategy, it is crucial for Kyiv to persistently weaken Russian forces through the challenging winter months.

Salm noted that some skeptics question Ukraine's ability to sustain the costly fight, but stressed the necessity of focusing on long-term strategic objectives rather than being consumed by daily questions. The failure of Ukraine's anticipated summer counteroffensive has further compounded the challenges faced by Kyiv as the year draws to a close.

Highlighting the significance of mathematics in determining the outcome of the war, Salm pointed out that Russia can recruit approximately 130,000 soldiers every six months. However, only around 40,000 of these recruits can be formed into combat units. This smaller force is utilized for offensive operations, allowing Russia to capture new territories and assert control over occupied areas.

The remaining 90,000 new recruits per month are considered expendable by Salm, equating them to mere cannon fodder. These individuals serve their purpose once and are then discarded. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces claim to have inflicted significant casualties on Russian soldiers, reportedly eliminating over 351,000 since February 2022.

While it is challenging to independently verify these figures, they appear to align with assessments made by the United States. The cost of this protracted war of attrition has been heavy for Ukraine, with estimated casualties of 70,000 dead and up to 120,000 wounded. These figures are expected to rise even further in the coming months.

The toll on both sides demonstrates the severity of the conflict, but Salm noted that Russia has not reached a tipping point in terms of manpower. However, the resources and ammunition available to Russia remain a concern.

In response to the escalating crisis, European Union nations have committed to expanding their collective defense industrial base to provide Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells per year by March 2024. Meeting this deadline is increasingly uncertain, yet Salm expressed optimism that Europe is on track to achieve the production capacity. The challenge lies in delivering these shells to Ukrainian forces on the ground.

Salm concluded by highlighting Moscow's persistent use of mass casualty tactics and emphasized the importance of convincing the allied public of the need for Western assistance. He acknowledged that the outcome of the war is not solely determined in the trenches but often influenced by events broadcasted on television and phone screens.

As Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in a protracted war of attrition, the coming months will test the resolve and resources of both sides. The toll on human lives and the urgent need for international support underscore the severity of the conflict and the challenges ahead.

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