The second year of the Russia-Ukraine War has been characterized by unexpected developments and disappointments for both sides, as the conflict shows no signs of resolution. With the situation remaining uncertain after 22 months of fighting, Russia has found itself scrambling for allies, munitions, and soldiers to sustain its war effort, while Ukraine has struggled to make the gains promised by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Here are the key events that unfolded this year, further complicating the conflict and raising uncomfortable questions for both parties.

One major development involved the clash between mercenary warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russia's military command, which witnessed frequent leadership changes. Prigozhin managed to gain control and implemented a controversial recruitment policy, tapping into Russia's prisons to reinforce his Wagner Group. However, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu cut off Prigozhin's access to prisons and crucial munitions in a bid to regain control.

Prigozhin responded by launching a "march of justice," posing a significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin's authority. Despite his hopes of garnering support from military officers and regiments, no backing materialized. Putin staunchly vowed to quash the rebellion, stressing that Prigozhin would be held accountable. Eventually, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko intervened and negotiated Prigozhin's surrender and exile, averting a potentially deadly confrontation.

Shortly after his exile, Prigozhin's private jet exploded in a fatal incident, claiming his life along with several key figures in the conflict. The explosion prompted immediate accusations from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and the White House, who blamed Putin for the assassination. The Pentagon concluded that the explosion was intentional, adding to the controversy surrounding Prigozhin's death.

The future of the Wagner Group remains uncertain. Putin has attempted to integrate the troops into the larger Russian military while appointing Andrei Troshev as the new leader of Wagner. However, these efforts pale in comparison to the challenges faced by Russia in sustaining the war effort without resorting to a national draft, which would likely be met with public opposition.

Additionally, Russia has struggled to maintain an adequate supply of munitions after depleting its reserves in the first year of the conflict. Consequently, Russia has sought to strike deals with anti-Western nations, including North Korea, to secure additional equipment. In October, Pyongyang sent 1,000 containers of equipment to Russia, and it was revealed that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sought advanced Russian weapons technology.

On the Ukrainian side, attempts to launch a major counteroffensive and regain lost territory faced significant obstacles. As Russian forces solidified their defensive positions, Ukraine was unable to make significant progress and instead found itself locked in a grueling war of attrition. While a few villages were recaptured, Ukrainian efforts failed to make a dent in the Russian forces.

Frustrated with the lack of progress, Ukraine turned to more covert tactics, including assassination attempts on Russian officials. Several incidents, including the killing of Luhansk legislature member Mikhail Filiponenko and drone attacks in Moscow, were attributed by the Kremlin to Ukrainian operatives.

The lack of substantial achievements in the war has led to questioning the continuation of funding for the Ukrainian effort. Congress, especially in light of the recent Hamas attack on Israel, has raised concerns about further financing, as the United States has provided strong support for Israel and deployed two aircraft carriers to the region to prevent further escalation.

As the conflict enters its third year, both Russia and Ukraine face significant challenges and uncertainties. The war continues to be a source of embarrassment for Russia while putting Ukraine's tactics under scrutiny. It remains to be seen how the conflict will evolve and whether any diplomatic resolutions will be pursued to bring an end to the ongoing hostilities.