Russian Army's Rotations in Ukraine Help Mitigate Exhaustion, but Long-Term Effectiveness Remains Uncertain - ISW Report
ICARO Media Group
In a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), it was highlighted that Russia's ability to rotate its forces in Ukraine has been crucial in replenishing units withdrawn from the front line due to attrition. This continuous influx of fresh troops allows the Russian army to maintain a steady operational pace in eastern Ukraine.
According to the report, the pace of Russian rotations aligns with statements made by Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of Ukraine's defense intelligence, who claimed that Russia had concentrated its entire ground component in Ukraine. This concentration enables the invaders to carry out rotations throughout the entire operational theater.
The report also notes that while Russian operational rotations effectively reduce exhaustion within the army, it remains unclear whether they can be sustained in the long term or in the face of a Russian or Ukrainian counteroffensive. Analysts suggest that Russia's deployment strategy mainly relies on assault groups that require minimal equipment and training.
"The Russian force generation apparatus appears to be replenishing losses in Ukraine with poorly trained and relatively combat ineffective personnel whom the Russian command has deemed sufficient for routine attritional frontal assaults," the ISW report stated.
Despite these rotations, the analysts observe that Russia has not achieved significant gains in Ukraine since October 2023. It raises doubts about the sustainability of their ongoing attacks and their ability to translate tactical victories into operationally significant results.
In related news, it was reported that Russia's Ministry of Defense has rejected proposals to limit the term of service for mobilized servicemen to 12 months, indicating a potential intention to keep the forces deployed for a longer duration.
Overall, while the Russian army's ability to rotate forces helps alleviate exhaustion and maintains localized offensive operations in the near term, questions remain about the long-term effectiveness of these rotations and their impact on potential counteroffensives. The situation in Ukraine continues to evolve, and further developments are anticipated in the coming months.