Analysis indicates that Russia may be embarking on a new offensive against Ukraine following the winter thaw. Recent weeks have witnessed intensified attacks by Moscow's forces along major sections of the frontline, resulting in small territorial gains. In response, Ukrainian troops have shifted their strategy to "active defense," aiming to hold their ground against the potential offensive.

The outcome of this looming offensive will depend on several factors, including the capabilities and political will of both Russia and Ukraine. On the political front, neither side has shown any intention of backing down. Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a forum with local government leaders on January 16, made it clear that he has no interest in negotiations with Ukraine and predicting a heavy blow to Ukrainian statehood. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, reaffirmed his determination to liberate all of Ukraine's currently Russian-occupied territories.

When examining the military capabilities, both sides face challenges. Russia has displayed its air power through repeated successful airstrikes across Ukraine, including in major cities like Kiev and Kharkiv. On the other hand, Ukraine lacks adequate air defense capabilities, leaving them vulnerable to such attacks. Moreover, Ukrainian ground efforts are hindered by ammunition shortages, making it difficult for them to fully compensate for artillery ammunition deficits and utilize combat drones effectively due to insufficient electronic warfare capabilities.

Manpower is also a concern for both sides. Putin has ruled out further mobilization, while Russia continues to receive a steady stream of volunteers estimated at around 30,000 per month. However, diverting workers to the frontlines may strain the Russian economy. Ukraine, on the other hand, plans to mobilize around 500,000 additional troops, but such an undertaking poses challenges and potential divisions.

Russia's alliance with Iran and North Korea, which includes military supplies, has bolstered its war efforts against Ukraine. These ties are expected to grow, further enhancing Russia's capabilities. Ukraine, on the other hand, heavily relies on foreign aid for its defense against Russian aggression, but such aid has become increasingly uncertain. With unclear prospects for additional US military support and concerns over future EU financial commitments, Ukraine has become dependent on a few donors, including Germany and the UK.

In addition to the aforementioned challenges, Ukraine's defense sector is not yet fully prepared for a war footing. This hinders its ability to manufacture sufficient ammunition and leaves military production facilities vulnerable to Russian drone and missile attacks. Ukraine lacks sufficient air defense systems to effectively counter such threats.

As Russia's potential offensive looms, the question of deterrence emerges as a crucial factor. Bilateral agreements between Ukraine and some Western allies, such as the UK and France, are now taking shape to strengthen defense and security cooperation. These agreements pledge assistance to Ukraine for the protection and restoration of its territorial integrity, while also aiming to prevent military escalation by Russia. While the level of enthusiasm for supporting a Ukrainian victory and NATO membership varies within the West, these agreements demonstrate a determination to prevent a major Russian counteroffensive and ensure Ukraine's security.

The situation remains precarious, and the outcome of a potential offensive is uncertain. However, with Western support and a focus on deterrence, there is hope to prevent a devastating escalation and illegal land grabs by Russia, while safeguarding Ukraine from a permanent defeat.