According to declassified intelligence shared with the U.S. Congress, Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine is not primarily focused on achieving operational objectives, but rather on weakening Western support for Kyiv. The intelligence report, accompanied by maps showcasing the latest situation on the ground, highlights that Russia has suffered significant losses without making substantial gains in the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis since the offensive was launched in October.

The report indicates that Russia's forces have endured 13,000 casualties and lost 220 combat vehicles in the western Donetsk Oblast. Sources familiar with the assessment claim that this represents a staggering 87 percent reduction in Russia's active-duty ground troops, as well as a two-thirds decrease in their pre-invasion tank count. These high losses indicate a strategy employed by Russia's military leadership to create a "deadlock" that could drain Western support for Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concurs with this assessment, suggesting that Russian forces are tactically timing these "costly offensive operations" to coincide with ongoing discussions in the West about providing support to Ukraine. Concerns over U.S. backing for Ukraine have been escalating due to delays in Congress regarding a $61 billion funding request for military aid to Kyiv.

In a recent development, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the allocation of $200 million in drawdown funds for Ukraine during President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington, D.C. However, experts emphasize the urgent need for continued Western aid, as Ukraine's ability to sustain its fight against Russian aggression is being seriously questioned. Without adequate resources, including the necessary munitions, Ukraine's future hangs in the balance.

David Silbey, an associate professor of history at Cornell University, warns that Ukraine's survival is at stake and that President Zelensky finds himself in a challenging position. The shifting global attention towards the Israel-Hamas conflict, alongside political disputes within Congress, further complicates the situation for Ukraine.

Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, asserts that if Washington fails to assemble a new aid package, Ukraine will inevitably lose the ongoing war. He suggests that Russia, emboldened by its manpower and material advantage, will persist in pressing its terms on Ukraine until it can impose peace on its own conditions.

The ISW, which has been monitoring the conflict closely, notes that Russia has been conducting information operations to counter Western assistance to Kyiv. Russian command believes that these operations have been fruitful, as they have fueled debates within the Western community about providing aid to Ukraine.

Daily maps provided by the ISW illustrate the state of play in the war, showcasing Russian advances and strategic locations. The most recent map demonstrates Russian forces' advancement towards the Avdiivka Coke Plant wastewater treatment facility, alleged to be used as a base and weapons storage facility by Ukrainian forces. Additionally, it highlights Russian progress in Sieverne and Marinka, further south, on December 11 and 12 respectively. Another map shows advances towards Khromove and Bohdanivka, located approximately 40 miles north of Avdiivka.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian defense ministry for comment but has not received a response at the time of writing. The situation in eastern Ukraine remains uncertain as the conflict continues to unfold, with the balance hinging on international support and diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis.