In the midst of political chaos and a far-reaching corruption probe, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa finds himself facing critical decisions about the future of the country's government. With options ranging from dissolving parliament and calling for new elections to appointing a new prime minister, Rebelo de Sousa must navigate a delicate balance to ensure stability and the smooth passage of the proposed 2024 budget.

Following the announcement that he will seek advice from parliamentary leaders on Wednesday, Rebelo de Sousa plans to consult with the Council of State, an advisory body to the president, on Thursday. It is expected that he will address the nation after these consultations, revealing his plans for the way forward.

One potential scenario is that Rebelo de Sousa could ask Prime Minister António Costa to continue as caretaker until the 2024 budget is passed, after which he would dissolve parliament. Another possibility is that Costa could be asked to remain in office until a new election is held.

Alternatively, the president could opt to appoint a new prime minister from within the ranks of the ruling Socialist Party, avoiding the need for dissolution. However, the ongoing corruption probe and recent arrests of high-ranking officials, including the prime minister's Chief of Staff Vítor Escária and Minister of Infrastructure João Galamba, have raised doubts about the party's ability to effectively govern.

Portugal's constitution grants the president broad authority in selecting a replacement for a resigned prime minister, as demonstrated in the past when Lisbon mayor Pedro Santana Lopes was appointed to the position despite not being a member of parliament. However, few current Socialist Party members are seen as suitable candidates given the current circumstances.

Given these challenges, it is increasingly likely that Rebelo de Sousa, a respected law professor with a deep understanding of Portugal's constitution, will decide to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. This move, while potentially resulting in further uncertainty, would provide an opportunity for the Portuguese public to determine the country's political direction.

Although the Socialist Party has experienced a decline in popularity since the last election in 2022, it still holds a narrow lead in the polls. The party's involvement in the corruption investigation has raised concerns about its continued hold on power and the impact of such a scenario on the country. Meanwhile, the center-right Social Democratic Party, which previously governed during the European debt crisis, struggles to regain public trust under the leadership of lawyer Luís Montenegro.

In a recent speech, Montenegro emphasized that the government had fallen "from within" and called for new elections, claiming that the legitimacy of the Socialist Party has collapsed. While polls suggest that forming a coalition with the far-right Chega group would be the most viable path to power for the Social Democrats, Montenegro stressed that such a collaboration was out of the question.

As Portugal awaits President Rebelo de Sousa's decision, the nation finds itself clinging to the hope of stability and effective governance. The choice between dissolving parliament or appointing a new prime minister will have significant consequences for the political landscape and the future of the proposed budget. Only time will tell what path is ultimately chosen and how it will shape the country's trajectory.