Moderna Posts Wider-Than-Expected Loss, Cuts Full-Year Outlook as Pandemic Resizing Continues

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ICARO Media Group
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02/11/2023 22h03

In a recent report released on Thursday, Moderna Inc., the renowned COVID vaccine maker, revealed a significant expansion of its third quarter loss, leading to a revision of its full-year sales forecast. The company aims to resize its pandemic-era manufacturing capacity while targeting a break-even point in 2026.

Moderna experienced a net loss of $3.63 billion, or $9.53 per share, for the quarter, compared to a net income of $1.043 billion, or $2.53 per share, in the same period the previous year. Analysts had anticipated a loss of $1.93 per share, according to FactSet consensus. The sizeable loss was mainly driven by non-cash charges totaling $3.1 billion, which included resizing costs, tax valuation allowances, inventory write-downs, and wind-down expenses related to contract manufacturing.

As a result, Moderna's stock dropped by 4.8% during premarket trading, threatening to end a three-day winning streak. Total revenue for the quarter reached $1.831 billion, a notable decrease compared to $3.364 billion in the previous year, but still surpassing FactSet's consensus estimate of $1.384 billion.

The company has adjusted its full-year 2023 revenue projection to at least $6 billion, down from its previous range of $6 billion to $8 billion. Additionally, Moderna anticipates a further drop in revenues to approximately $4 billion next year before a return to growth in 2025.

Moderna's Chief Financial Officer, Jamey Mock, stated, "With this quarter's results, we really tried to lay out our philosophy for the next three years. We are committed to breaking even by 2026."

During the quarter, Moderna recorded $1.8 billion in sales from its COVID vaccine, with approximately 50% of that revenue coming from the United States. The company revealed that its Spikevax vaccine's market share in the U.S. has risen to 45% this fall compared to 36% during the fall 2022 vaccination period. Moderna's CEO, Stephane Bancel, mentioned in a statement that the company expects this year's vaccination rate to be similar to that of last fall.

Moderna's stock has faced significant challenges this year, further exacerbated by Pfizer Inc.'s downward revision of its full-year outlook due to lower-than-expected demand for COVID products. Although Moderna confirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $6 billion to $8 billion shortly after Pfizer's announcement, the company acknowledged that it was still too early in the vaccination season to accurately project full-year vaccination rates.

In a TD Cowen investor sentiment survey released on Wednesday, Moderna emerged as the least-favored large-cap biotech stock, reflecting the tepid enthusiasm from investors within the sector.

Transitioning from COVID revenues, Moderna aims to emphasize the growth potential in its pipeline. The company expects to launch up to 15 new products within the next five years. Additionally, Moderna reaffirmed its plans to introduce a vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the coming year, with its pre-filled syringes offering a simplified and differentiated approach. Moderna's CFO, Jamey Mock, expressed excitement about the current uptake of the vaccines already available on the market, noting that it was occurring at a faster rate than anticipated.

Moderna has set a target for regulatory approval of its experimental combination COVID and flu vaccine by 2025. The company recently announced encouraging interim results from the clinical trial for the vaccine and confirmed that the first patient received a dose in a late-stage study.

In the fourth quarter, Moderna plans to release additional data regarding its collaboration with Merck & Co. Inc. on the development of an investigational individualized cancer vaccine.

Moderna's stock performance has suffered this year, with a decline of 57% year-to-date, while the broader S&P 500 index has shown a gain of 10.4%.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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