Gold Prices Stabilize After Record High as Bulls Exhausted, Silver Retreats from Seven-Month High
ICARO Media Group
In early U.S. trading Tuesday, gold prices held steady while silver prices experienced a slight decline. This comes after gold reached a remarkable milestone, soaring to a new all-time high of $2,152.30 per ounce on the basis of February Comex futures. Meanwhile, silver hit its highest level in seven months on Monday. However, the price action observed suggests that the bull run may be losing steam, indicating potential near-term market peaks for both precious metals. As a result, experts anticipate sideways and choppy trading in the near future.
As for the bearish factors affecting the gold and silver markets this week, there has been a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and a drop in crude oil prices. Despite these challenges, the overall bullish technical charts, a declining U.S. dollar index, falling bond yields, ongoing safe-haven demand, and the perception that major central banks will reduce their interest-rate-increase cycles continue to support both metals. Furthermore, any escalation of turmoil in the Middle East could rapidly push gold and silver prices higher.
Overnight trading saw mixed to weaker performance in Asian and European stock markets, resulting in U.S. stock indexes indicating lower openings for the New York day session.
In other news, Moody's credit rating agency downgraded China's credit rating outlook from stable to negative due to concerns about the weakening economic growth outlook and problems in the country's property sector. The agency currently rates China's sovereign debt at A1. Moody's projects that China's economy will experience a slowdown to 4% annual GDP in 2024 and 2025. In addition, a recent headline from Dow Jones Newswires states, "China's colossal hidden-debt problem is coming to a head." The mixed impact of this news on gold and silver stems from the fact that while it is bullish due to the troubles faced by the world's second-largest economy, it is also bearish as it implies reduced demand from a major gold-consuming country.
Examining the key outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is slightly down while Nymex crude oil prices have recorded a marginal increase, currently trading around $73.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note stands at 4.245%.
From a technical standpoint, the gold futures market continues to favor the bulls in the near term, albeit with signs of exhaustion. The daily bar chart shows a two-month uptrend. The next objective for the bulls is to close March futures above the strong resistance level at the record high of $2,152.30. Conversely, the bears' near-term target is to push prices below the solid technical support level at $2,000.00. Immediate resistance levels are noted at the overnight high of $2,059.60, followed by $2,072.70. On the other hand, initial support is seen at this week's low of $2,038.40, followed by $2,025.00. The overall market rating, as per Wyckoff's rating system, stands at 6.0.
Similarly, the silver market exhibits an overall near-term advantage for the bulls, albeit with signs of exhaustion that suggest a near-term peak has been reached. The daily bar chart also depicts a two-month uptrend. The next price objective for the silver bulls is to close March futures above the solid technical resistance level set at $26.34, which was witnessed earlier this week. In contrast, the bears' downside target is to achieve closing prices below the strong support level at $23.00. Initial resistance levels are identified at $25.00, followed by $25.25, while support levels lie at $24.50 and $24.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating for silver stands at 6.0.
As the precious metals market continues to navigate through these mixed factors, market participants remain on the lookout for any developments that could significantly impact gold and silver prices, such as Middle East tensions or further revelations regarding China's economic situation.