The European Commission has recommended that formal talks on Ukraine and Moldova's accession to the European Union (EU) should commence once both countries have completed the necessary reforms. The EU executive announced this decision while unveiling an eagerly awaited assessment of the membership bids of candidate countries.

If EU leaders endorse the recommendation during the upcoming European Council summit in mid-December, talks regarding Ukraine and Moldova's accession could officially begin. However, all 27 member states must unanimously support this decision.

This marks the first time that the European Commission has given the green light for formal accession talks before a country has fully met all pre-conditions. The urgency stems from Russia's ongoing aggression towards Ukraine, injecting momentum into the traditionally slow process of approving new EU members.

According to the Commission, technical work can commence immediately once EU leaders give their endorsement. This will enable the swift adoption of the negotiating framework, which outlines the roadmap for negotiations, once Ukraine and Moldova finalize their pending reforms. The Commission has committed to reporting on the progress of these reforms by March of next year.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that the accession process remains merit-based, meaning that no fixed date for full membership can be provided. She called enlargement a vital policy for the EU, stating that completing the Union is the "call of history" and the natural horizon of the Union's development.

The response from Ukraine and Moldova has been optimistic and enthusiastic. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine's deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, acknowledged the importance of the assessment and announced that the country would reveal its next steps in response to the recommendations later in the day. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the decision as a historic step towards a stronger EU with Ukraine as a member.

Moldova's President Maia Sandu also welcomed the Commission's recommendation and pledged to work tirelessly towards EU membership.

Both Ukraine and Moldova attained official EU candidate status in June of last year, shortly after Russia's military intervention in Ukraine. EU leaders understand that the integration of the bloc's eastern flank is crucial for its geopolitical relevance. Failure to enlarge would leave the whole European continent more vulnerable, as emphasized by Germany's top diplomat Annalena Baerbock.

The assessment of progress on the path to EU membership confirms that Ukraine has met four out of the seven pre-conditions for opening negotiations. Some remaining work needs to be done on anti-corruption measures, de-oligarchisation, and minority rights. Moldova likewise needs to finalize judicial reforms and introduce additional anti-graft measures.

Both countries have achieved at least 90% of the required reforms, creating the possibility for tying up loose ends in the reforms by the first half of 2024. However, there are concerns among certain EU leaders regarding the outstanding reforms. Diplomatic sources suggest that while member states are likely to support the opening of talks in December, some countries may prefer to delay formal negotiations until 2024 to ensure proper completion of the reforms.

One potential stumbling block is Hungary's ultranationalist prime minister Viktor Orbán, who previously threatened to veto Ukraine's EU membership bid. Orbán accused Ukraine of failing to uphold the rights of the Hungarian minority in the Transcarpathian Oblast. Ensuring the integration of minority languages, including Hungarian, is crucial for Ukraine's progress. However, it seems that the use of the Russian language will not be considered in the reforms.

Tackling corruption is also essential for securing member states' support. Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico recently expressed reservations about increasing financial assistance to Ukraine, citing Ukraine's reputation as one of the most corrupt countries in the world according to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index.

Despite challenges related to corruption, President Zelenskyy has made significant efforts to meet Brussels' anti-graft demands. His government's crackdown on corruption led to the resignation of his defense minister in September. The EU is urging Ukraine to expand the capacity of its National Anti-Corruption Bureau and grant more powers to its National Agency on Corruption Prevention.

The European Commission report also calls for tighter government lobbying rules to counter the influence of oligarchs on public administration in Ukraine.

Ukraine and Moldova's potential EU accession signifies a significant development in the enlargement process. However, the road to membership still requires completion of the necessary reforms, further discussions, and the unanimous support of all EU member states.