Milan, Italy - Estonia is growing increasingly worried about the slow progress made by the European Union (EU) in significantly increasing ammunition supplies to Ukraine, as concerns mount over member nations' internal politics impeding the delivery process. According to a senior Estonian defense official, the timeline for the deliveries is set for next March, leaving just a few months to either fully meet the target or at least come close to it.

Tuuli Duneton, the undersecretary for defense policy, emphasized Estonia's constant efforts in urging different nations not to give up on the agreed plan. Although Duneton expressed cautious optimism, she acknowledged that there is still a significant amount of work to be done.

Last spring, Estonia played a crucial role in initiating an EU plan to jointly deliver 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by March 2024. However, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently called on backers of Kyiv to ensure the availability of enough 155mm artillery shells to repel potential Russian forces, alongside increased production capabilities from synchronized companies.

Duneton highlighted the complexity of the situation, pushing back against EU leaders who initially placed blame on the industry for the slow progress. She pointed out that European nations had not placed substantial orders for 155mm ammunition in previous years, resulting in a sudden surge in demand. Additionally, larger states, which are also struggling to meet NATO's 2% defense spending target, are facing domestic issues that hinder their ability to fully commit to the ammunition delivery plan.

Moreover, the lack of transparency among member nations regarding Ukraine support and domestic production increases further complicates the situation. Duneton noted that many nations do not share information about their defense industry orders, making it difficult to coordinate efforts and compare notes.

Political hedging may also be a contributing factor to the overall vagueness surrounding the situation. Duneton refrained from naming specific countries but suggested that some governments might not have placed any orders, raising concerns about their commitment to financing the deliveries. She stressed that without visible orders, defense industry production cannot be sustained indefinitely.

For Estonia, the outcome of Ukraine's defense is of existential importance as officials fear that a victorious Moscow could potentially turn its attention to the Baltic states next. Duneton emphasized the need to exert every effort to ensure Ukraine's success in the face of this threat.

As the concerns over EU's progress in delivering ammunition to Ukraine persist, Estonia continues its advocacy for timely and substantial support to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities. The next few months remain crucial in meeting the agreed-upon targets and securing Ukraine's ability to repel potential aggression.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo, a Europe correspondent for Defense News, covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security. She specializes in reporting on the aviation sector and is based in Milan, Italy.