China's population has experienced a decline for the second year in a row, causing worries about its long-term economic implications. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, there were only 9.02 million births in 2023, which is half the number recorded in 2017. Simultaneously, 11.1 million deaths were reported in 2023, a rise of 500,000 compared to the previous year. As a result, China's population shrank by 2.08 million in 2023, following a decline of 850,000 in 2022, resulting in a loss of approximately 3 million people over two years.

This sustained decrease in population marks the first time since the devastating famine of 1959-1961, raising concerns about a worrisome trend. Experts from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predict that China's population may shrink from the current 1.4 billion to a mere 525 million by 2100, according to updated low-scenario projections. The working-age population is expected to plummet to just 210 million by the end of this century, only one-fifth of its peak in 2014.

The diminishing population in China is a consequence of factors such as an aging population, a decline in birth rates, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The aging population is primarily attributed to falling birth rates. China's total fertility rate, which measures the average number of births per woman, has dramatically decreased from 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 under the one-child policy to 1.08 in 2022. This rate is considerably lower than the generally accepted level of 2.1 required to maintain a population. In comparison, countries like Australia and the United States have fertility rates of 1.6, while South Korea has the world's lowest rate at 0.72.

Despite the introduction of a three-child policy in 2021, which included incentives such as tax benefits, China has seen birth rates continue to decline. The long-lasting impact of the previous one-child policy, the decreasing number of women of child-bearing age, and economic pressures have contributed to the hesitancy around parenthood. Women graduates in China face lower wages compared to men, and many are delaying having children.

The upcoming Year of the Dragon in 2024, according to Chinese astrology, may provide hope for a resurgence in births, as it is considered a symbol of good fortune. It is speculated that some families may have chosen to postpone childbirth in 2023, which was considered a less auspicious year, particularly the Year of the Rabbit.

The declining population in China poses significant challenges as the country transitions to an older and more dependent population. Should current trends continue, the number of Chinese aged 65 and older is expected to surpass the number of people of traditional working age by 2077, three years earlier than previous forecasts. By 2100, every 100 working-age Chinese individuals would need to support 137 elderly Chinese individuals, a significant increase from the current ratio of 21.

Economically, the accelerated decline in China's population is expected to impact the country and the world at large. It will weaken China's economy by reducing consumer spending and exert upward pressure on wages and government spending. As the second-largest global economy, this decline presents challenges for the global economic recovery.

While the exact outcomes and timing remain uncertain, China's shrinking population and the subsequent implications underscore the need for proactive measures to address declining birth rates, aging populations, and their impact on economies worldwide.