Following the recent lightning offensive by Azerbaijan to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, the peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached a critical crossroads as key issues such as the fate of Karabakh Armenians, territorial integrity, and mediation continue to complicate the negotiations.

The peace talks, which have been ongoing since 2021, seemed to have neared a conclusion after Azerbaijan's takeover of Karabakh and the subsequent dissolution of its de facto government. This development resolved the long-standing issue of the fate of Karabakh Armenians. Both sides have vowed to recognize each other's territorial integrity, paving the way for a potential resolution.

However, the negotiations are far from simple. Aside from the crucial matters of border delimitation/demarcation and the opening of transit links, the parties involved remain at odds over the question of mediation. Armenia is increasingly looking towards Western support, dissatisfied with its nominal strategic partner Russia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is seeking regional solutions, expressing displeasure with Western mediation and calling for involvement from countries like Turkey, Iran, and Georgia.

These differences in approach led to the cancellation of a planned meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which was set to take place in the presence of European mediators. Aliyev's decision to back out of the meeting was influenced by the presence of France, an ally of Armenia, and the exclusion of Turkey, Azerbaijan's strategic partner.

Despite this setback, Pashinyan still attended the European Political Community Summit in Granada, Spain, where discussions on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process were held with European leaders. A joint statement was issued by President Charles Michel of the European Council, President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, and Prime Minister Pashinyan, expressing their commitment to the normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan, as well as mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

However, concerns persist in Armenia that Azerbaijan may invade to establish a transit corridor, prompting the EU to seek assurances from Baku against any use of force. The tensions between Armenia and Russia have also widened during this period. Pashinyan accused Russia of attempting to topple his government, citing the lack of support during the recent conflict. A Russian official responded, labeling Pashinyan's statement as "provocative" and drawing comparisons between Armenia and Ukraine.

In addition to these challenges, the question of exclaves further complicates the border negotiations. Both countries have tiny islands of territory surrounded entirely by the other nation, along with bits of territory that were sliced off during the First Karabakh War in the 1990s. The issue of Azerbaijani villages allegedly under Armenian occupation and the presence of Azerbaijani troops deep inside what is considered Armenian territory are among the points that need to be addressed during the talks.

As the peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan reach a critical juncture, the resolution of these complex issues remains crucial for long-term stability and reconciliation in the region. The coming weeks and months will determine the path forward and the potential for lasting peace between the two nations.