**SportsLine Model Unveils Top NFL Picks for Thanksgiving Day 2024**

Thanksgiving Day NFL games have been a staple since 1945, and this year marks the 80th consecutive year of the beloved tradition. The Detroit Lions, a constant in these holiday matchups, are Super Bowl favorites this season and are currently favored by 10.5 points over the Chicago Bears in the latest NFL odds. Notably, the Lions not only boast the best overall record in the NFL but also lead in the against-the-spread record at 9-2, making them a popular choice for NFL bets and Thanksgiving Day parlay picks. The over-under for the Lions vs. Bears game is set at 48.5.

In addition to the Lions-Bears showdown, two other exciting contests are slated for Thanksgiving: the Dallas Cowboys will face off against the New York Giants (+3.5, 37) for the third Thanksgiving meeting in history, and the Green Bay Packers will take on the Miami Dolphins (+3, 47). The Cowboys are entering the game with a seven-game winning streak against the Giants, while the Packers have triumphed over the Dolphins in their last three encounters. With these historical trends in mind, bettors may find additional insights before making their Thanksgiving NFL picks.

The SportsLine Projection Model has made waves with its accuracy, simulating every NFL game 10,000 times. This model has delivered impressive returns, accumulating over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The 2024 season has been particularly successful, with the model achieving a remarkable 22-8 betting streak on top-rated picks as of Week 13. Overall, the model has sustained a 202-136 record on top-rated picks dating back to the 2017 season, including a notable 56-29 run since Week 7 of 2022. The model's consistency has also been recognized on NFLPickWatch, where it ranked in the top 10 for straight-up NFL picks in four of the past six years, beating over 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that period.

For the 2024 Thanksgiving Day games, the model has identified six best bets. Those who parlay the model’s pinpoint recommendations stand to gain a potential payout of approximately 44-1. Specifically, the model has highlighted the Over (47) bet for the Packers vs. Dolphins game at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Dolphins, led by Tua Tagovailoa, have seen the Over hit in four out of their last five games since his return. Both teams are coming off recent victories; Green Bay notched a season-high 38 points against a formidable 49ers defense, and Miami's high-scoring performances further bolster the Over trend. Historical data supports this as well, with Green Bay hitting the Over at a 12-4-1 rate after victories since 2023, and Miami at 15-9 under similar conditions.

Individual player statistics also favor a high-scoring game. Packers' Josh Jacobs is ranked third in rushing yards, and quarterback Jordan Love is sixth in passing touchdowns despite limited gameplay. The model forecasts Love to secure multiple passing touchdowns and Jacobs to achieve around 90 scrimmage yards. For Miami, De'Von Achane is projected to surpass 100 total yards. Consequently, the model confidently predicts the Over (47) to hit over 50% of the time, with the combined score likely exceeding 50 points.

To explore the complete set of top picks and secure a potential high-return parlay, sports enthusiasts and bettors can turn to SportsLine for detailed insights.