The College Football Playoff (CFP) has evolved from a stronghold of favorites to a potential haven for underdogs with its recent expansion to 12 teams. As the 2024 college football season kicks off, analysts have delved into the data to forecast which unranked teams may have a shot at crashing the CFP party this year.

Drawing on a decade of historical trends, experts have identified seven teams that could be potential dark horses in the race for a playoff berth. These trends shed light on the characteristics that have paved the way for past underdogs to emerge as top contenders.

One noticeable pattern among the 14 historical underdogs is that they all hailed from power conferences. Given the evolving landscape of realignment in college football, it is expected that this trend will continue. Consequently, teams from outside the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC have been eliminated from the list of contenders.

After applying further criteria, including the previous season's performance and strength of schedule, the list narrowed down to a remaining pool of seven unranked teams: Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Iowa State, Michigan State, North Carolina, and South Carolina.

Surprise top-10 teams from the past decade were not coming off disastrous seasons but had also notched a decent number of wins. This parameter led to the elimination of eight teams from the list. Furthermore, teams with a 2023 strength of schedule weaker than average were also removed from contention.

Taking into account historical preseason national championship betting odds, it was observed that most long-shot underdogs had odds no longer than +35000. Three teams in the past were significantly underestimated, with odds exceeding +100000. This criterion helped eliminate 21 teams from the pool of contenders.

Another important factor in identifying potential underdogs was the balance between performance and the previous season's record. Only one team in the past had transitioned from an unranked team to a top 10 contender after winning more than eight games the previous season. This year, the Washington Huskies, despite their previous success, do not meet this criteria due to significant changes in coaching staff and player personnel.

Additionally, teams with head coaches or coordinators in their first or second year at the job were more likely to surprise as contenders. Applying this filter to the list of contenders resulted in the exclusion of Texas Tech.

Lastly, sustained success in recruiting talented high school players played a pivotal role in building championship contenders. Teams with at least three top-50 recruiting classes in the four years prior to their breakout were deemed more likely to have a chance at the playoff. By applying this criterion, three teams were eliminated from the pool.

Based on this comprehensive analysis, the remaining seven teams - Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Iowa State, Michigan State, North Carolina, and South Carolina - emerge as the strongest underdog contenders for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

While there are no guarantees in college football, the expansion of the CFP has opened up opportunities for unranked teams to make a significant impact. As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on these underdogs as they seek to defy the odds, shake up the rankings, and potentially earn a coveted place in the postseason tournament.