According to recent data released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia's once-strong arms export industry is experiencing a significant decline due to the pressures of the ongoing war in Ukraine and a struggling economy. This decline has resulted in Russia falling to third place among the world's largest weapons exporters, behind France and the United States, marking the first time it has surrendered its position as the second-largest exporter.

Over the past five years, Russia's arms exports have fallen by 53 percent from 2014-18 to 2019-23, with the number of significant customers dropping from 31 to 12 nations over this period. Experts predict that this decline is likely to have long-lasting effects, with significant challenges ahead for Russia to regain its position as a major arms supplier globally. The current figures on weapons orders also indicate that Russia is lagging behind.

The war in Ukraine, which has lasted for over two years and claimed more than half a million casualties, has strained Moscow's military industrial resources. In response, President Vladimir Putin has shifted the Russian economy toward a war footing, mobilizing long-neglected military stores and seeking new foreign suppliers. However, Western sanctions have limited Russia's domestic industry and restricted access to advanced Western technology needed for more sophisticated weapons production.

Additionally, Russia's exclusion from international financial markets has hampered its ability to make deals. The arms industry is challenged in catering to both the domestic and export demand, as sanctions hinder production and payment options for ongoing international deals. The poor performance of Russian technology on the battlefields of Ukraine has further diminished its reputation in the arms market, with reports of Russian ships sinking, planes being downed, and air defense systems proving inadequate.

The decline in exports has left Russia heavily reliant on Asia and Oceania, with states in this region accounting for 68 percent of total exports from 2019-23. India, making up 34 percent, and China, contributing 21 percent, have been the major recipients. However, even these potential superpowers are decreasing their dependency on Russian arms. India has turned to France for combat aircraft, while China has developed its own competitive arms industry, diminishing its need for Russian imports.

Political considerations also play a significant role in the arms market. Countries like India, Vietnam, and Egypt are increasingly seeking cooperation with the United States against common threats, reducing their reliance on Russian arms. The Moscow-Beijing power dynamic is also shifting, with China becoming more self-reliant on its arms industry. China's decreasing interest in Russian equipment poses a significant challenge for Russia.

Looking ahead, the future of Russia's arms export industry remains uncertain. Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America no longer offer lucrative markets, leaving the Middle East as a potential region of interest. However, experts caution that it is too early to make forecasts in this regard.

As Russia grapples with declining exports and diminishing markets, it is becoming increasingly crucial for the country to reassess its position in the global arms industry. The current offerings may not be appealing or competitive enough to attract potential buyers. Russia's arms export industry faces an uphill battle to regain its former strength and adapt to a changing geopolitical landscape.