In a recent turn of events, Russia has declared victory in the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka after establishing temporary air superiority over the war-torn area. This strategic move, which marks the first time Russia has controlled the skies in a front-line zone since the invasion began almost two years ago, has raised concerns among conflict analysts.

The capture of Avdiivka comes at a high cost for Moscow, with significant losses in troops and equipment reported since focusing its forces on the town last fall. Despite the victory being hailed as Russian President Vladimir Putin's biggest achievement since the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023, the toll on resources and manpower has been substantial.

It was reported that Ukraine was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka due to dwindling supplies, including artillery ammunition, amidst delays in Western security aid. The lack of support has put pressure on Ukrainian air defenses, which are crucial in preventing Russian air superiority.

The Institute for the Study of War highlighted the potential devastating impact if Russia maintains or expands its air superiority advantage. Reports indicated an increase in the use of Russian glide bombs dropped by fixed-wing aircraft, demonstrating a combined arms approach to overpower Ukrainian defenses.

As Russia sets its sights on further operations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the fallout of losing Avdiivka remains uncertain. The capture of the town is seen more as an informational victory for Russia, enhancing its propaganda efforts against Ukraine.

Despite the temporary air superiority, questions linger about Russia's sustainability in operations, given extreme casualties and losses in the area. The slowing tempo of Russian offensive operations in Avdiivka suggests that the recent victory could mark the culmination of their actions, amid doubts about their ability to endure under such conditions.