In a development reminiscent of previous operations, pro-Ukrainian forces have carried out cross-border raids into Russian territory, temporarily seizing control of a village in the border region of Kursk. The raids were conducted by anti-Putin Russian groups, including the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and the Siberian Battalion. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War have reported that the attacks were supported by tanks, armored vehicles, and drones.

Initially, Moscow denied the incursions, but later acknowledged the presence of enemy fighters while asserting that they did not advance far into Russia's territory and were successfully repelled. However, the situation on the ground appears to be less clear, with ongoing battles reported in Tetkino, signaling pro-Ukrainian forces' ability to maintain control over parts of the village, according to Sim Tack, Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis.

Clashes between pro-Ukrainian groups and Russian national guard forces continue in the Kursk region, with the Russian defense ministry claiming to have killed 195 Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed several tanks and armored infantry vehicles in response to an earlier border assault. In a joint statement, three pro-Kyiv militia groups have urged Russian authorities to evacuate civilians from the Belgorod and Kursk regions to prevent civilian casualties.

Experts point out that these recent incursions resemble those that occurred in the spring and summer of 2023. However, the current military and political context differs significantly, with Ukraine now on the back foot and Russian forces having established a defensive line about twenty kilometers inside their territory. This defensive line stretches from northern Kursk to southern Belgorod and has made incursions deeper into Russian territory more challenging.

The capture of Tetkino by the Freedom of Russia Legion and other armed groups seems to be a strategic move rather than an attempt at occupation, as they are reportedly prepared for a rapid retreat. The raids into Russia serve as a means for these groups, officially acting on their own, to influence the Russian presidential election and present an alternative to President Putin.

Nevertheless, experts believe that the anti-Putin forces' goals are unattainable, as they lack the means to go very far and have not attempted to breach the new Russian defensive lines. Moreover, the attacks might inadvertently strengthen Putin's appeal among the Russian public, as they reinforce the narrative of a "besieged Russia" in the midst of an election campaign.

While the raids may not significantly impact Russian public opinion, they play a crucial role in Kyiv's strategy. These operations by Ukrainian forces aim to divert Moscow's attention and resources away from the front lines and towards defending entry points into Russian territory. In recent weeks, Ukraine has launched various attacks, from targeting Russian warships in the Black Sea to a drone strike on an oil refinery near Saint Petersburg, showcasing their disruptive capabilities even while primarily in a defensive role.

As the cross-border raids unfold leading up to the Russian presidential election, they raise questions about the broader dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the potential consequences for both countries involved.

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