In a potentially impactful weather event, a developing tropical disturbance is poised to unleash heavy flooding rains and strong winds on the Texas coast. Areas including Rockport, Corpus Christi, and South Padre Island are at risk, with widespread rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches anticipated, and localized amounts potentially reaching up to 15 inches. The system is also expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, coastal splash-over, and ocean surge, prompting tropical storm warnings in Texas from San Luis Pass to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

While the system may gain enough strength to be named "Alberto," there is a chance it might not meet the necessary criteria. Nevertheless, it poses a significant threat, with wind speeds forecasted to range between 35 and 45 mph, and the potential for coastal and inland flooding. This disturbance is also being closely monitored as it could spawn another tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico within the next week.

As the hurricane season reaches its peak around September 15, this year's forecasted above-average activity, attributed to favorable upper-level winds caused by a developing La Niña pattern and exceptionally warm Atlantic waters, adds to concerns. At present, a nascent disturbance over the northwestern Bahamas is being closely watched, as it may pose a risk to Florida or the Carolinas in the coming days.

Named as "Potential Tropical Cyclone 1," the current system is located approximately 395 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and is moving at a speed of 6 mph towards the north. Although it possesses winds of up to 40 mph, they are displaced far north of the center, a departure from typical tropical cyclone characteristics. Additionally, the system lacks a defined circulation center and a cohesive mass of convection or shower and thunderstorm activity.

Meteorologists are observing a large-scale area of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean, and parts of Central America, known as the Central American Gyre (CAG). Some weather models suggest that a more concentrated area of spin within the CAG could consolidate and make landfall in Tamaulipas or Veracruz, Mexico, as a low-end tropical storm. However, the main concern lies in the extreme moisture the system is expected to steer into Texas.

Southeasterly winds will usher in a substantial tropical fire hose of moisture, potentially reaching record-breaking levels in Brownsville, Texas. A prolonged period of torrential downpours is expected, with rainfall rates possibly exceeding 2 inches per hour within the heavier rain bands. While the heaviest rainfall is currently projected to stay south of Houston, the city could still see around 3 to 6 inches, leading to a flood watch for Houston, Galveston, and the Golden Triangle area.

Further south, areas such as Corpus Christi, Brownsville, and McAllen could experience rainfall totals ranging from 5 to 10 inches, with potential for even higher amounts in localized spots. In addition to heavy rain, coastal areas from the Louisiana border to Sargent, Texas, including Houston and Galveston, should prepare for a storm-driven surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal levels.

The system is expected to bring rain and wind overnight Tuesday, with the heaviest rainfall occurring on Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, northern areas will see a decrease in intensity, while far South Texas will experience heavy downpours until early Thursday. However, the impacts will extend beyond Texas, with northeast Mexico and Central America also bracing for very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, urban flooding, river flooding, and potential mudslides in higher terrains.

The tropical disturbance is projected to dissipate by Friday. Meanwhile, another weak zone of low pressure, cloudiness, and showers has been observed a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas. While the atmospheric environment is marginally conducive to development, the chances of this system becoming a tropical depression or storm are estimated to be only 20 percent. Its exact path and potential impact remain uncertain as it moves towards the southeastern United States and approaches the coast later in the week.