Oil Prices Slide Amid OPEC+ Decision to Ease Cuts and Softening Demand Concerns

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03/06/2024 19h10

Title: Oil Prices Slide Amid OPEC+ Decision to Ease Cuts and Softening Demand Concerns

In a move that sent shockwaves through the oil market, oil prices fell as much as 3.5% on Monday following OPEC+'s decision to start unwinding some voluntary cuts earlier than anticipated. The decision comes amidst recent softness in oil prices and concerns about demand heading into 2025.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slid below $75 per barrel, marking a significant decline, while Brent, the international benchmark price, hovered around $78.60 in midday trading. These levels reflect a decrease of approximately 13% from their peak in April.

According to Rebecca Babin, US senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, Monday's heavy selling was worsened by technical pressure and limited interest in buying the dip due to soft demand. This sentiment was echoed by analysts who viewed the decision as premature, barring a significant upside surprise in demand.

Over the weekend, the oil alliance led by Saudi Arabia confirmed that the existing cuts of 3.6 million barrels per day would be extended until the end of next year. However, additional reductions of 2.2 million barrels per day would gradually be implemented over the next 12 months, starting in October. This unwinding of cuts raises concerns about the market's ability to accommodate future supply reductions when they may be needed in 2H25.

Analysts at JPMorgan view the decision as "market neutral" for oil balances and prices in 2024. The potential for a demand slowdown in the coming year is forecasted, leading to the argument that some voluntary reductions should be rolled back when demand allows, even if it results in slightly lower prices.

The downward trend in crude oil prices has provided some relief at the pump, with gasoline prices easing in recent weeks. According to AAA data, the national average for gasoline stood at $3.53 per gallon on Monday, representing a $0.06 drop from the previous week. This decline is the largest weekly drop observed in 2024.

Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, noted that wholesale gasoline prices have experienced an "epic slide," leading to discussions about plunging retail numbers. As crude prices continue to fluctuate, the impact on gasoline prices will remain a key topic of interest.

As the oil market reacts to OPEC+'s decision and factors in concerns over demand, global attention will now turn to how the ongoing developments will affect the energy sector and consumers alike.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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