Gold Prices Approach $3,000 per Ounce amid Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility
ICARO Media Group
Title: Gold Prices Approach $3,000 per Ounce amid Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility
In a surge driven by unprecedented monetary easing and a tense U.S. presidential election race, the gold market is witnessing a steady climb towards a significant milestone of $3,000 per ounce. Spot gold hit a historic high of $2,572.81 an ounce on Friday, marking a remarkable 24% rise this year and positioning gold for its strongest annual performance since last year. The surge in gold prices is fueled by safe-haven demand, geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as well as robust central bank buying.
According to Aakash Doshi, head of commodities, North America at Citi Research, gold's upward trajectory is expected to continue. Doshi predicts that gold could reach $3,000 per ounce by mid-2025, with a target of $2,600 by the end of 2024. This projection is attributed to several factors, including U.S. interest rate cuts, strong demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and over-the-counter physical demand.
Adding to the positive outlook for gold, the World Gold Council reported that global physically backed gold ETFs experienced inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August. Moreover, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 18 has heightened market speculation about a potential U.S. interest rate cut, which would further support gold prices. Currently, investors are pricing in a 55% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 45% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.
Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, suggests that if incoming data indicates growth risks and weakness in the labor market, the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut in November or December would rise. Such a scenario would strengthen the tailwind for gold and result in an earlier attainment of $3,000 per ounce.
Notably, major central banks have already initiated interest rate cuts, with the European Central Bank implementing its second quarter-point cut of the year last week. Analysts are also considering other factors that fuel demand for gold, such as the upcoming U.S. election and the uncertainty it brings. Joseph Cavatoni, market strategist at the World Gold Council, acknowledges that the election could add to market volatility, potentially driving investors towards the safe-haven status of gold.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, believes that achieving the $3,000 per ounce target is possible, particularly if political unrest follows the election. Investment banks and analysts, including Goldman Sachs, have increasingly turned bullish on gold, considering it as their preferred hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.
Even Australia's Macquarie has raised its gold price forecasts, projecting a quarter average cyclical peak of $2,600 per ounce in the first quarter of next year, with a potential spike towards $3,000. While the fiscal outlook of developed markets continues to support gold, analysts at Macquarie caution that potential cyclical headwinds may emerge later next year.
As gold prices soar and investor confidence grows, the market braces for a potential breakthrough of the $3,000 per ounce milestone, driven by underlying economic uncertainties and global volatility.
(Note: This article is based on information and quotes provided in a news report by Reuters.