Focus on CPI Reports, Jobless Claims, and Flash PMIs as Key Economic Indicators This Week

https://icaro.icaromediagroup.com/system/images/photos/16219677/original/open-uri20240519-56-4shjmy?1716155942
ICARO Media Group
News
19/05/2024 21h57

In the week ahead, investors will closely monitor a series of important economic indicators that could shape market expectations. The highlights include the release of Canadian and UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, US Jobless Claims data, and Flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs) for several major economies.

Starting with the Canadian CPI, analysts expect the year-on-year figure to come in at 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, slightly lower than the previous month. Attention will mainly be on the underlying inflation measures, such as the Trimmed-Mean CPI and Median CPI, which are both expected to show a slight decrease compared to their previous readings. These figures will provide insight into the Bank of Canada's (BoC) decision-making process, and if they meet or fall below the central bank's target band of 1-3%, it could potentially pave the way for a rate cut in June.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50%. The RBNZ has been cautious about deviating from its 1-3% inflation target and has faced challenges with slowing inflation and a rising unemployment rate. The market expects a possible policy easing in August, although the central bank has repeatedly emphasized its stance of not normalizing policy at this time.

In the UK, the CPI year-on-year figure is expected to decline to 2.1% from 3.2% previously, while the Core CPI is projected to drop to 3.7% from 4.2%. These figures will be closely watched by the Bank of England (BoE), which places particular importance on services inflation. If the inflation data is positive, the market may price in higher chances for a rate cut in June ahead of the next BoE meeting.

Turning to the United States, the focus will be on the weekly Jobless Claims data, which serves as a timely indicator of the labor market's health. Jobless Claims have remained at low levels, indicating a robust labor market. A stronger labor market supports the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate, while a weakening labor market could complicate its objective. This week, economists expect Initial Claims to be around 220,000, with Continuing Claims not yet having a consensus.

Lastly, Thursday will be significant for the release of Flash PMIs in major economies including the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. The market's attention will mainly be on the US Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to increase to 46.6 from 45.7. Additionally, the UK Services PMI is forecasted to decline slightly to 54.8, while the UK Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain below the 50 mark. The Eurozone Negotiated Q1 Wage Growth data will also be closely watched, as the European Central Bank (ECB) has been eagerly awaiting signs of improved inflation prospects.

Overall, investors are closely monitoring these economic indicators to gauge the health of the global economy and determine potential shifts in monetary policy. The outcomes of these reports could have a significant impact on market expectations and guide investment decisions in the coming weeks.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

Related