On the first day of second-quarter trading, crude oil futures experienced a notable increase as reports emerged of a missile strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. This incident has raised concerns about a potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East, thereby impacting near-term oil prices.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May delivery saw a rise of 54 cents, or 0.65%, settling at $83.71 per barrel. Additionally, the Brent contract for June delivery gained 42 cents, or 0.48%, settling at $87.42 per barrel.

Syrian and Iranian state media sources confirmed on Monday that the Israeli missile strike had targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus. According to a Lebanese security source, among the casualties was a senior commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Leo Mariani, an analyst with Roth MKM, stated that if the news is confirmed, it marks a clear escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which is likely to continue bolstering oil prices in the short term.

Geopolitical risks have been a persistent concern for the energy market, with recent events including Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries and Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea diverting crude deliveries around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa.

Furthermore, the ongoing expectation of strong global demand, coupled with OPEC+'s decision to limit oil production through at least the second quarter, has also contributed to the gradual increase in oil prices this year. Both U.S. crude and Brent futures have witnessed three consecutive months of gains, with WTI experiencing a year-to-date increase of 17.8% and Brent rising by 14.2%.

As the situation in the Middle East unfolds and geopolitical tensions persist, market participants will closely monitor developments for any potential impacts on oil prices. The missile strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus serves as a reminder that geopolitical risks can significantly influence energy markets.

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