****

The St. Louis Cardinals are headed into an unconventional offseason as they grapple with unmet expectations and organizational changes. This will be the last season John Mozeliak oversees the team before Chaim Bloom takes the helm. Despite having a roster packed with talent, the Cardinals recognize the need for a significant shake-up, emphasizing the importance of rejuvenating their lineup with younger players.

One of the high-profile moves that the Cardinals are considering involves veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. The ten-time Gold Glove winner, who turns 34 next April, is set to earn $74 million over the next three seasons. Additionally, his contract includes millions in salary deferrals. While Arenado has a no-trade clause, he has shown a willingness to waive it for the right deal. In a bid to enhance his trade appeal, he has even suggested he would switch to first base if it benefits his new team. Despite his age, Arenado remains a solid contributor, posting 2.5 rWAR this season, and continues to be a defensive asset, being a Gold Glove finalist this year and ranking high among third basemen in Outs Above Average.

Offensively, Arenado has experienced a decline, though he still managed an OPS+ of 101 this season. This is a dip from his 2022 performance, where he posted a 7.7 rWAR and finished third in MVP voting with a .293/.358/.533 line and 30 home runs. This season, his numbers dropped to a .272/.325/.394 line with 16 home runs—the lowest slugging percentage of his career. However, Arenado's contact skills remain strong, with a 14 percent strikeout rate over the past four seasons, placing him 21st-lowest in baseball. This year, his contact rate stood at 84.4 percent.

The challenge for potential suitors, such as the Royals, is balancing the remaining value Arenado provides with his hefty salary and diminished power. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate have fallen significantly, with only two "no doubter" home runs this year, in stark contrast to the 21 he hit in 2021. With his scheduled salary, trade negotiations will require the Cardinals to consider how much of his contract they are willing to cover to facilitate a move. Katie Woo from The Athletic expresses skepticism about the Cardinals’ willingness to pay extra to move him.

Baseball Trade Values actually places Arenado's trade value at -$22 million, suggesting that to make a deal more tempting, the Cardinals might need to eat a substantial portion of his salary. Specifically, if St. Louis were to cover $11 million each season over the next two years, the financials might be more reasonable, though complications remain, particularly with the deferred payments running through 2041.

Ultimately, the Cardinals face a tough decision on how to approach this offseason. While the free agent market for hitters may not be particularly strong, the prospect of pursuing cheaper and younger talent like Tyler O'Neill or Jurickson Profar could provide more flexibility and less financial risk compared to holding onto a high-priced veteran like Arenado. However, if they are desperate enough to lighten their payroll, trading Arenado with significant financial concessions could be a strategic move worth exploring.