In a highly anticipated Saturday night showdown at Ford Field, the Detroit Lions are eager to get back on track as they face off against the Denver Broncos. On the surface, these teams appear to be heading in opposite directions, with the Broncos winning six of their last seven games, while the Lions have mustered a 4-3 record during that same stretch.

The Lions' pass offense, in particular, has faced challenges recently, especially when playing against the Chicago Bears. Despite having some games with impressive overall stats against teams like the Packers and Saints, the Lions' pass offense has experienced significant lulls. This is evident when looking at the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) numbers, which indicate that the Lions' pass offense has dropped in rankings since the Chargers game.

Another indication of the passing offense's struggles is the drop in dropback Expected Points Added (EPA) rankings. While the Lions ranked 11th in dropback EPA during the first 10 weeks, they now sit at 21st in the past four weeks. However, it is crucial to note that these rankings have been heavily influenced by the impressive Bears defense.

Looking at the season as a whole, the Lions' pass offense still boasts respectable numbers, with a seventh-place ranking in yards per attempt (7.4), an eighth-place ranking in passer rating (94.8), and a 15th-place ranking in dropback EPA.

Despite recent setbacks, the Lions' pass offense may gain confidence as their starting offensive line trends towards full strength. Pass protection has been a key issue for the Lions, and the return of the offensive line can potentially address this concern. However, some uncertainties linger, and the Lions' pass offense can currently be classified as above average or good, but not great.

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have undergone a remarkable turnaround in their passing defense. At the start of the season, they struggled and were considered one of the worst passing defenses in NFL history. However, in recent weeks, the Broncos have transformed with impressive performances against several teams, holding quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes to their lowest passer ratings of the season.

The reasons behind this drastic turnaround are not entirely clear, but it is likely a combination of settling into Vance Joseph's defensive scheme and having a talented secondary. Cornerback Patrick Surtain has proven himself as a shutdown cornerback, while nickel cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian has emerged as a breakout star in his second year. Safety Justin Simmons has also been a ball hawk with nine interceptions over the past two seasons. However, it is worth noting that the Broncos rank 31st in PFF's coverage ranking, suggesting some inconsistencies in their pass defense.

While the Broncos excel in pass defense, their pass rush has been less formidable, ranking 30th in ESPN's pass rush win rate, 25th in PFF pass rush grade, and 24th in pressure percentage. To compensate for this, the Broncos have become an aggressive defense, blitzing at the seventh-highest rate in the league. Unfortunately, they will be without Nik Bonitto, their leading sack leader with 7.0 sacks.

Turnovers have played a significant role in the Broncos' success, with 17 forced turnovers in the past six games, including six interceptions. However, it remains uncertain whether this high turnover rate is sustainable.

Considering all factors, the Lions currently hold a slight advantage in the passing offense category, despite recent struggles. The Broncos' passing defense, while improved, still ranks low in several key metrics. Turnovers aside, Denver ranks 27th in yards per attempt allowed (7.6), 24th in completion percentage allowed, and 22nd in success rate.

Moving to the rushing attack, the Lions have been consistently strong, averaging at least 4.5 yards per carry in seven consecutive games. They have surpassed the 140 rushing yards mark on seven occasions this season, including five of their last six games.

The Lions' success on the ground can be attributed to both their backfield talent and their impressive offensive line. The offensive line ranks second in adjusted line yards, first in PFF's run blocking grade, and eighth in yards before contact per attempt. The Lions also excel in yards after contact per attempt and rushing PFF grade.

While the Broncos' run defense has improved since the start of the season, it has not experienced the same drastic turnaround as the passing defense. The Broncos' run defense ranks in the top half of the league in EPA, but the improvement in this statistic is influenced by their high number of fumble recoveries since Week 6.

Considering the strength of the Lions' rushing attack and the Broncos' average run defense, the Lions hold a significant advantage in this category, providing them with a favorable matchup.

In terms of the Broncos' passing offense, they have been efficient but not explosive this season. Quarterback Russell Wilson has been consistent, maintaining a passer rating above 100 in multiple games. However, he has struggled to achieve more than 250 passing yards in a game.

The Broncos' passing attack ranks 17th in yards per attempt (6.9), fifth in passer rating (98.3), 20th in EPA, and 22nd in success rate. Wilson tends to play it safe, throwing mostly short passes, as indicated by his average depth of target, which ranks 28th in the league.

Receiver Courtland Sutton serves as the Broncos' deep threat, excelling in contested catches on deep shots. Wilson attempts deep passes at a relatively high rate, but his sacks have been a concern, with the Broncos allowing the sixth-most sacks in the league.

The Lions' pass defense has struggled in recent weeks, particularly in the secondary, where they now rank 28th in PFF's coverage grade. Changes were made last week, but it remains unclear if they will provide significant upgrades.

Overall, the Lions' pass defense ranks low in yards per attempt allowed, passer rating allowed, dropback EPA, and success rate. However, the Lions have shown improvement in generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

With a slight advantage in the passing offense category, the Lions hope to exploit the Broncos' pass defense vulnerabilities.

In conclusion, the Lions face a pivotal matchup against the Broncos on Saturday night. Despite recent struggles, their passing offense still holds an edge over the Broncos' pass defense, while their potent rushing attack poses a significant challenge for Denver's run defense. However, the Broncos' opportunistic defense, capable of forcing turnovers, remains a potential game-changer.

Both teams will need to address their respective weaknesses and capitalize on their strengths to secure a crucial victory. The outcome of this game could have a significant impact on the Lions' divisional chances, making it a must-watch matchup for football fans.

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